气温对巴西主要微地区COPD死亡风险的影响:一项时间序列研究

IF 2.9 4区 医学 Q2 RESPIRATORY SYSTEM Jornal Brasileiro De Pneumologia Pub Date : 2023-10-10 DOI:10.36416/1806-3756/e20220442
Igor Magaton Ribas1, João Pedro Medeiros Gomes¹, Pedro Augusto Rosa Valadares¹, Lucas Santos Jardim¹, Mário Círio Nogueira¹, Cássia de Castro Martins Ferreira2, William Cossich Marcial de Farias3, Letícia de Castro Martins Ferreira1
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引用次数: 0

摘要

目的:评价巴西10个主要微区COPD死亡风险与气温事件的相关性。方法:这是对1996年至2017年间每日COPD死亡人数和每日平均气温的时间序列分析。使用分布式非线性滞后模型,我们估计了四个温度百分位数(代表中度和极端寒冷和炎热事件)与最低死亡温度相关的慢性阻塞性肺病死亡率的累积相对风险,滞后21天,在每个微区域。结果:在巴西南部和东南部微地区,极端气温事件与COPD死亡风险之间存在显著关联。在以下微区,极端寒冷与死亡风险增加存在关联:阿雷格里港36% (95% CI, 1.12-1.65);库里提巴27% (95% CI, 1.03-1.58);在圣保罗;34% (95% CI, 1.19-1.52);而在相同的微区,中度寒冷与风险分别增加20% (95% CI, 1.01-1.41)、33% (95% CI, 1.09-1.62)和24% (95% CI, 1.12-1.38)相关。在圣保罗和里约热内卢微区,慢性阻塞性肺病死亡风险增加:中度高温分别为17% (95% CI, 1.05-1.31)和12% (95% CI, 1,02-1,23),极端高温分别为23% (95% CI, 1,09-1,38)和32% (95% CI, 1,15-1,50)。结论:在巴西热带和亚热带地区,非最佳气温事件与COPD死亡风险增加相关。
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Effects of air temperature on the risk of death from COPD in major microregions in Brazil: a time series study
Objective: To evaluate the association between the risk of death from COPD and air temperature events in ten major Brazilian microregions. Methods: This was a time series analysis of daily COPD deaths and daily mean air temperatures between 1996 and 2017. Using distributed nonlinear lag models, we estimated the cumulative relative risks of COPD mortality for four temperature percentiles (representing moderate and extreme cold and heat events) in relation to a minimum mortality temperature, with a lag of 21 days, in each microregion. Results: Significant associations were found between extreme air temperature events and the risk of death from COPD in the southern and southeastern microregions in Brazil. There was an association of extreme cold and an increased mortality risk in the following microregions: 36% (95% CI, 1.12-1.65), in Porto Alegre; 27% (95% CI, 1.03-1.58), in Curitiba; and 34% (95% CI, 1.19-1.52), in São Paulo; whereas moderate cold was associated with an increased risk of 20% (95% CI, 1.01-1.41), 33% (95% CI, 1.09-1.62), and 24% (95% CI, 1.12-1.38) in the same microregions, respectively. There was an increased COPD mortality risk in the São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro microregions: 17% (95% CI, 1.05-1.31) and 12% (95% CI, 1,02-1,23), respectively, due to moderate heat, and 23% (95% CI, 1,09-1,38) and 32% (95% CI, 1,15-1,50) due to extreme heat. Conclusions: Non-optimal air temperature events were associated with an increased risk of death from COPD in tropical and subtropical areas of Brazil.
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来源期刊
Jornal Brasileiro De Pneumologia
Jornal Brasileiro De Pneumologia RESPIRATORY SYSTEM-
CiteScore
3.50
自引率
14.80%
发文量
118
审稿时长
20 weeks
期刊介绍: The Brazilian Journal of Pulmonology publishes scientific articles that contribute to the improvement of knowledge in the field of the lung diseases and related areas.
期刊最新文献
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