A fragile future for pink birds: habitat suitability models predict a high impact of climate change on the future distribution of flamingos

ABSTRACTClimate change is one of the most impactful global phenomena, affecting multiple ecosystems, particularly wetlands and water bodies, as well as important species that depend on these areas. Flamingos are unique and distinctive species that live exclusively in these environments and are highly impacted by any changes in their breeding or non-breeding wetlands. To address and measure the direct impact that future climatic changes could have on the distribution of the six extant species of flamingos, I used citizen science data and climatic variables to construct habitat suitability models. These models were used to predict the future gain or loss of climatic suitability areas in the short, medium, and long term, under four different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and eight Global Circulation Models. The results predicted that five out of the six species of flamingos will experience continued loss of habitat over the next few decades in all scenarios. Dramatic changes in distribution are expected for all species. The data also indicate a higher impact of climate change on more habitat restrictive species and on wetlands along the borders of their distributions. Finally, the research highlights the importance of combined efforts from public communities, scientists, and policymakers to create mitigation and conservation plans that could avoid the intensification of climate change effects on wetlands and prevent the future reduction of flamingo populations.KEYWORDS: Climate changeconservationflamingoshabitat suitability modelsPhoenicopteriformes AcknowledgmentsI am grateful to Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul for putting the facilities of the laboratory at my disposal.Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Data availability statementThe data used to support the study were collected on freely available online research databases; further details on the models are available in the Supplementary Materials.Supplementary dataSupplemental data for this article can be accessed at https://doi.org/10.1080/01584197.2023.2257757.Additional informationFundingThe author is supported by a Doctoral fellowship, from the Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq), Brazil.