{"title":"全球气候模式对水资源的可预测性。突尼斯北部个案","authors":"Mustapha Besbes, Jamel Chahed","doi":"10.5802/crgeos.219","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The objective of the research is to explore the predictability of water resources directly with GCMs by analysing long-term effects of climate change on Northern Tunisia’s blue and green water. Hydrologic impacts rely on a rainfall-runoff lumped model using outputs of CMIP6 GCMs within the framework of the ssp2-45 scenario. Among the 30 CMIP6 models, the composite cnrm-esm2-1 and fgoals-g3 best restore observed runoff from 1995 to 2014 and give the best GCM. Hydrologic projections 2015–2100 show significant drops in rainfall (9%), runoff (21%), groundwater recharge (15%), as well as for green water (6%). The results show that the use of raw GCMs predictions on large basins is possible and provides precisions comparable to what is produced when using Regional Climate Models in medium size basins.","PeriodicalId":50651,"journal":{"name":"Comptes Rendus Geoscience","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0000,"publicationDate":"2023-06-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Predictability of water resources with global climate models. Case of Northern Tunisia\",\"authors\":\"Mustapha Besbes, Jamel Chahed\",\"doi\":\"10.5802/crgeos.219\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"The objective of the research is to explore the predictability of water resources directly with GCMs by analysing long-term effects of climate change on Northern Tunisia’s blue and green water. Hydrologic impacts rely on a rainfall-runoff lumped model using outputs of CMIP6 GCMs within the framework of the ssp2-45 scenario. Among the 30 CMIP6 models, the composite cnrm-esm2-1 and fgoals-g3 best restore observed runoff from 1995 to 2014 and give the best GCM. Hydrologic projections 2015–2100 show significant drops in rainfall (9%), runoff (21%), groundwater recharge (15%), as well as for green water (6%). The results show that the use of raw GCMs predictions on large basins is possible and provides precisions comparable to what is produced when using Regional Climate Models in medium size basins.\",\"PeriodicalId\":50651,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Comptes Rendus Geoscience\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-06-12\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Comptes Rendus Geoscience\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.5802/crgeos.219\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Comptes Rendus Geoscience","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.5802/crgeos.219","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Predictability of water resources with global climate models. Case of Northern Tunisia
The objective of the research is to explore the predictability of water resources directly with GCMs by analysing long-term effects of climate change on Northern Tunisia’s blue and green water. Hydrologic impacts rely on a rainfall-runoff lumped model using outputs of CMIP6 GCMs within the framework of the ssp2-45 scenario. Among the 30 CMIP6 models, the composite cnrm-esm2-1 and fgoals-g3 best restore observed runoff from 1995 to 2014 and give the best GCM. Hydrologic projections 2015–2100 show significant drops in rainfall (9%), runoff (21%), groundwater recharge (15%), as well as for green water (6%). The results show that the use of raw GCMs predictions on large basins is possible and provides precisions comparable to what is produced when using Regional Climate Models in medium size basins.
期刊介绍：
Created in 1835 by physicist François Arago, then Permanent Secretary, the journal Comptes Rendus de l''Académie des sciences allows researchers to quickly make their work known to the international scientific community.
It is divided into seven titles covering the range of scientific research fields: Mathematics, Mechanics, Chemistry, Biology, Geoscience, Physics and Palevol. Each series is led by an editor-in-chief assisted by an editorial committee. Submitted articles are reviewed by two scientists with recognized competence in the field concerned. They can be notes, announcing significant new results, as well as review articles, allowing for a fine-tuning, or even proceedings of symposia and other thematic issues, under the direction of invited editors, French or foreign.
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