利用地理空间技术进行小农信用评分

Susan A. Okeyo, Galcano C. Mulaku, Collins M. Mwange
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摘要

根据联合国粮食及农业组织(FAO)的数据,世界上大约有5亿小农,在发展中国家,这些农民生产了大约80%的粮食消费;因此,他们的农业活动对其国家的经济和全球粮食安全至关重要。然而,这些农民面临着获得信贷渠道有限的挑战,这往往是由于他们中的许多人在未登记的土地上耕作,无法向贷款机构提供抵押品;但是,即使他们拥有的是已登记的土地,由于担心失去土地而拖欠贷款,他们也常常不愿申请农业信贷;即使他们申请了,他们仍然会因为低信用评分(一种衡量信誉的指标)而处于不利地位。其结果是,他们往往无法使用最佳的农业投入,如化肥和优质种子等。这降低了它们的产量,进而对它们所在社区和世界的粮食安全产生负面影响,从而使联合国难以实现其可持续发展目标2(没有饥饿)。本研究旨在展示如何利用地理空间技术利用农业信用评分为小农造福。在研究区内进行了一项调查,以确定小农农场和农民。然后,通过机器学习对接受调查的农民样本进行信用评分。在第一个实例中,使用传统的金融数据方法,结果显示超过40%的农民无法获得信贷。当将非金融地理空间数据即归一化植被指数(NDVI)引入评分模型时,不符合信贷条件的农民数量显著减少至24%。结论是,在传统评分模型中引入NDVI变量可以显著提高小农获得信贷的机会,从而使这些农民能够更好地根据其作物的健康状况而不是传统形式的抵押品来评估信贷。
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Leveraging Geospatial Technology for Smallholder Farmer Credit Scoring
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), there are about 500 million smallholder farmers in the world, and in developing countries, such farmers produce about 80% of the food consumed there; their farming activities are therefore critical to the economies of their countries and to the global food security. However, these farmers face the challenges of limited access to credit, often due to the fact that many of them farm on unregistered land that cannot be offered as collateral to lending institutions; but even when they are on registered land, the fear of losing such land that they should default on loan payments often prevents them from applying for farm credit; and even if they apply, they still get disadvantaged by low credit scores (a measure of creditworthiness). The result is that they are often unable to use optimal farm inputs such as fertilizer and good seeds among others. This depresses their yields, and in turn, has negative implications for the food security in their communities, and in the world, hence making it difficult for the UN to achieve its sustainable goal no.2 (no hunger). This study aimed to demonstrate how geospatial technology can be used to leverage farm credit scoring for the benefit of smallholder farmers. A survey was conducted within the study area to identify the smallholder farms and farmers. A sample of surveyed farmers was then subjected to credit scoring by machine learning. In the first instance, the traditional financial data approach was used and the results showed that over 40% of the farmers could not qualify for credit. When non-financial geospatial data, i.e. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was introduced into the scoring model, the number of farmers not qualifying for credit reduced significantly to 24%. It is concluded that the introduction of the NDVI variable into the traditional scoring model could improve significantly the smallholder farmers’ chances of accessing credit, thus enabling such a farmer to be better evaluated for credit on the basis of the health of their crop, rather than on a traditional form of collateral.
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