covid-19时空封锁模型的数值研究

Ahmed F. Koura, Kamal R. Raslan, Khalid K. Ali, Mohamed A. Shaalan
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摘要

本文对COVID-19的封锁(时间和时空)数学模型进行了详细的数值研究。本文提出的时间模型由5个非线性常微分方程组成,而时空模型由5个非线性偏微分方程组成。讨论再现数作为估计COVID-19大流行传播的手段,并进行敏感性分析以突出大流行参数的重要性。此外,还研究了给定模型的稳定区域,以及应用于时空模型的数值格式的Von Neumann稳定性和一致性。为了分析模型在不同参数下的数值结果并进行比较,采用了中心有限差分(CFD)和五阶龙格-库塔(RK-5)等有效方法。这项综合研究揭示了不同情景下新冠肺炎大流行的动态和行为,揭示了封锁措施的有效性以及各种参数对疾病传播的影响。
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A numerical study for covid-19 spatio-temporal lockdown model
This article presents a detailed numerical study of lockdown (temporal and spatio-temporal) mathematical models for COVID-19. The temporal model proposed in this study comprises a system of five nonlinear ordinary differential equations, while the spatio-temporal model consists of five nonlinear partial differential equations. The reproduction number is discussed as a means to estimate the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, and sensitivity analysis is performed to highlight the significance of pandemic parameters. Furthermore, the stability regions of the given models, as well as the Von Neumann stability and consistency of the numerical scheme applied to the spatio-temporal model, are investigated. To analyze the numerical results of the presented models under various parameters and facilitate comparison, effective methods such as the central finite difference (CFD) and Runge-Kutta of fifth order (RK-5) are applied. This comprehensive study provides insights into the dynamics and behavior of the COVID-19 pandemic under different scenarios, shedding light on the effectiveness of lockdown measures and the impact of various parameters on the spread of the disease.
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