B. H. Albergaria, C. A. F. Zerbini, M. Lazaretti-Castro, S. R. Eis, T. Vilaca, H. Johansson, N. C. Harvey, E. Liu, L. Vandenput, M. Lorentzon, M. Schini, E. McCloskey, J. A. Kanis
{"title":"巴西的新FRAX模型。","authors":"B. H. Albergaria, C. A. F. Zerbini, M. Lazaretti-Castro, S. R. Eis, T. Vilaca, H. Johansson, N. C. Harvey, E. Liu, L. Vandenput, M. Lorentzon, M. Schini, E. McCloskey, J. A. Kanis","doi":"10.1007/s11657-023-01354-3","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>\n <i>Summary</i>\n </h3><p>Fracture probabilities derived from the original FRAX model for Brazil were compared to those from an updated model based on more recent regional estimates of the incidence of hip fracture. Fracture probabilities were consistently lower in the updated FRAX model. Despite large differences between models, differences in the rank order of fracture probabilities were minimal.</p><h3>Objective</h3><p>Recent epidemiological data indicate that the risk of hip fracture in Brazil is lower than that used to create the original FRAX model. This paper describes the epidemiology of hip fracture in Brazil and the synthesis of an updated FRAX model with the aim of comparing this new model with the original model.</p><h3>Methods</h3><p>Hip fracture rates from three cities in three regions were combined, weighted by the population of each region. For other major fractures, incidence rates for Brazil were estimated using Swedish ratios for hip to other major osteoporotic fracture (humerus, forearm or clinical vertebral fractures). Mortality estimates were taken from the UN.</p><h3>Results</h3><p>Compared to the original FRAX model, the updated model gave lower 10-year fracture probabilities in men and women at all ages. Notwithstanding, there was a very close correlation in fracture probabilities between the original and updated models (<i>r</i> > 0.99) so that the revisions had little impact on the rank order of risk.</p><h3>Conclusion</h3><p>The disparities between the original and updated FRAX models indicate the importance of updating country-specific FRAX models with the advent of significant changes in fracture epidemiology.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":8283,"journal":{"name":"Archives of Osteoporosis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.1000,"publicationDate":"2023-11-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10684424/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"A new FRAX model for Brazil\",\"authors\":\"B. H. Albergaria, C. A. F. Zerbini, M. Lazaretti-Castro, S. R. Eis, T. Vilaca, H. Johansson, N. C. Harvey, E. Liu, L. Vandenput, M. Lorentzon, M. Schini, E. McCloskey, J. A. Kanis\",\"doi\":\"10.1007/s11657-023-01354-3\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><h3>\\n <i>Summary</i>\\n </h3><p>Fracture probabilities derived from the original FRAX model for Brazil were compared to those from an updated model based on more recent regional estimates of the incidence of hip fracture. Fracture probabilities were consistently lower in the updated FRAX model. Despite large differences between models, differences in the rank order of fracture probabilities were minimal.</p><h3>Objective</h3><p>Recent epidemiological data indicate that the risk of hip fracture in Brazil is lower than that used to create the original FRAX model. This paper describes the epidemiology of hip fracture in Brazil and the synthesis of an updated FRAX model with the aim of comparing this new model with the original model.</p><h3>Methods</h3><p>Hip fracture rates from three cities in three regions were combined, weighted by the population of each region. For other major fractures, incidence rates for Brazil were estimated using Swedish ratios for hip to other major osteoporotic fracture (humerus, forearm or clinical vertebral fractures). Mortality estimates were taken from the UN.</p><h3>Results</h3><p>Compared to the original FRAX model, the updated model gave lower 10-year fracture probabilities in men and women at all ages. Notwithstanding, there was a very close correlation in fracture probabilities between the original and updated models (<i>r</i> > 0.99) so that the revisions had little impact on the rank order of risk.</p><h3>Conclusion</h3><p>The disparities between the original and updated FRAX models indicate the importance of updating country-specific FRAX models with the advent of significant changes in fracture epidemiology.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":8283,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Archives of Osteoporosis\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.1000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-11-28\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10684424/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Archives of Osteoporosis\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11657-023-01354-3\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ENDOCRINOLOGY & METABOLISM\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Archives of Osteoporosis","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11657-023-01354-3","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ENDOCRINOLOGY & METABOLISM","Score":null,"Total":0}
Fracture probabilities derived from the original FRAX model for Brazil were compared to those from an updated model based on more recent regional estimates of the incidence of hip fracture. Fracture probabilities were consistently lower in the updated FRAX model. Despite large differences between models, differences in the rank order of fracture probabilities were minimal.
Objective
Recent epidemiological data indicate that the risk of hip fracture in Brazil is lower than that used to create the original FRAX model. This paper describes the epidemiology of hip fracture in Brazil and the synthesis of an updated FRAX model with the aim of comparing this new model with the original model.
Methods
Hip fracture rates from three cities in three regions were combined, weighted by the population of each region. For other major fractures, incidence rates for Brazil were estimated using Swedish ratios for hip to other major osteoporotic fracture (humerus, forearm or clinical vertebral fractures). Mortality estimates were taken from the UN.
Results
Compared to the original FRAX model, the updated model gave lower 10-year fracture probabilities in men and women at all ages. Notwithstanding, there was a very close correlation in fracture probabilities between the original and updated models (r > 0.99) so that the revisions had little impact on the rank order of risk.
Conclusion
The disparities between the original and updated FRAX models indicate the importance of updating country-specific FRAX models with the advent of significant changes in fracture epidemiology.
期刊介绍:
Archives of Osteoporosis is an international multidisciplinary journal which is a joint initiative of the International Osteoporosis Foundation and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA. The journal will highlight the specificities of different regions around the world concerning epidemiology, reference values for bone density and bone metabolism, as well as clinical aspects of osteoporosis and other bone diseases.