Yield increases mediated by pollination and carbon payments can offset restoration costs in coffee landscapes

Ecological restoration is vital for reversing biodiversity loss and climate change but faces cost-related implementation challenges, hampering global restoration efforts. Identifying when restoration within agricultural landscapes provides financial benefits—either by increasing crop yields or providing carbon credits—is imperative. Here, we developed restoration scenarios and estimated their financial outcomes to understand conditions where coffee yield and carbon-credit-derived restoration benefits compensate restoration costs in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest hotspot. We found that costs can be balanced by yield increases when farms already have >10% forest cover and restoration targets are below 25% forest cover. Additionally, a CO₂ value of USD 20/ton would make restoration more attractive. This study demonstrates conditions where ecological restoration can be an economically viable approach for landscape management, concurrently promoting biodiversity conservation and climate mitigation. These insights hold significant strategic value for the scaling up of restoration initiatives to meet ambitious restoration commitments.