The Mw = 5.8 2019 Silivri earthquake, NW Türkiye: is it a warning beacon for a big one?

Abstract

The September 26, 2019 Silivri earthquake (M_W = 5.8) occurred along the North Anatolian Fault beneath the Marmara Sea and its epicenter was in an identified seismic gap. Coseismic stress calculations demonstrate that the 1999 İzmit earthquake (M_W = 7.4) caused stress increase from 0.057 to 0.114 bars at its hypocenter, depending on the various reported rupture parameters. In addition, over 20 years following the 1999 earthquake, and constituting the main difference from previous studies, viscoelastic postseismic stress computations indicate stress increase from 0.081 to 0.135 bars at the hypocenter. In spite of the positive stress transfer, the 2019 earthquake occurred long after the end of the computed aftershock time span (~ 16 years) of the 1999 earthquake. Plots of the seismicity around selected points within the gap also show that the background seismicity level following the 1999 earthquake was reached in 2003. Therefore, it is suggested that the 2019 earthquake was not an aftershock but rather an independent event, and its occurrence was hastened about 4 years due to stress loading. Further analysis of the seismicity between 1978 and 2020 indicates that the b value increased from a range of 1.0–1.1 to 1.6–1.8 till 2002, then progressively decreased to 0.9–1.0, which is consistent with positive stress transfer. The stress increase ranging from 0.19 to 2.52 bars on the segments within the gap brought forward their seismic cycles about 33 and 2 years from east to west, respectively. These additional clock advances in the seismic cycles due to stress load urgently require risk mitigating actions.

Graphical abstract