CMIP6模式对全球变暖下太平洋和大西洋年代际变化的响应

IF 2.2 3区 地球科学 Q2 OCEANOGRAPHY Ocean Dynamics Pub Date : 2023-12-05 DOI:10.1007/s10236-023-01590-8
Yuyang Shang, Peng Liu, Sheng Wu
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引用次数: 0

摘要

海洋的年代际变率是气候系统变化的重要指标,对海洋生态系统具有相当大的影响。我们利用9个CMIP6模式(BCC-CSM2-MR、CESM2-WACCM、ccc - esm2、EC-Earth3-Veg-LR、FGOAL-f3-L、INM-CM5-0、MIROC6、MPI-ESM1-2-LR和NorESM2-MM)研究了全球海洋区域的年代变率响应。结果表明,在当前条件下,气候模式可以捕获太平洋年代际振荡、热带太平洋年代际变化、南太平洋年代际振荡和大西洋多年代际变化。海洋年代际变率正在变弱,周期正在缩短,特别是在全球变暖强烈的情景下。然而,热带太平洋年代际变率与其他三种气候变率模态之间存在差异。这可能是由于赤道地区几乎不变的大气强迫造成的,而在高纬度地区,这种强迫正在减弱。
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Responses of the Pacific and Atlantic decadal variabilities under global warming by using CMIP6 models

Decadal variability in the ocean is an important indicator of climate system shifts and has considerable influences on marine ecosystems. We investigate the responses of decadal variability over the global ocean regions using nine CMIP6 models (BCC-CSM2-MR, CESM2-WACCM, CMCC-ESM2, EC-Earth3-Veg-LR, FGOAL-f3-L, INM-CM5-0, MIROC6, MPI-ESM1-2-LR, and NorESM2-MM). Our results show that climate models can capture the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability, South Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability under present-day conditions. The ocean decadal variabilities are becoming weaker and their periods are decreasing, especially under the strong global warming scenario. However, there is a discrepancy between the Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability and the other three modes of climate variability. This might be caused by the nearly unchanged atmospheric forcing in the equatorial region, which is decreasing in the higher latitude regions.

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来源期刊
Ocean Dynamics
Ocean Dynamics 地学-海洋学
CiteScore
5.40
自引率
0.00%
发文量
37
审稿时长
6-12 weeks
期刊介绍: Ocean Dynamics is an international journal that aims to publish high-quality peer-reviewed articles in the following areas of research: Theoretical oceanography (new theoretical concepts that further system understanding with a strong view to applicability for operational or monitoring purposes); Computational oceanography (all aspects of ocean modeling and data analysis); Observational oceanography (new techniques or systematic approaches in measuring oceanic variables, including all aspects of monitoring the state of the ocean); Articles with an interdisciplinary character that encompass research in the fields of biological, chemical and physical oceanography are especially encouraged.
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