时间序列赫斯特指数估计方法综述

Hong-Yan Zhang, Zhi-Qiang Feng, Si-Yu Feng, Yu Zhou
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引用次数: 0

摘要

赫斯特指数是表征时间序列的自相似性和长时记忆特性的重要指标。它在物理、技术、工程、数学、统计学、经济学、心理学等领域都有广泛的应用。目前可用的估计时间序列Hurst指数的方法可分为基于时间序列表示的时域方法和谱域方法,基于参数估计的线性回归方法和贝叶斯方法。虽然文献中讨论了各种方法,但仍存在一些不足:对估计算法的描述只是面向数学的,缺少伪码;估计算法的有效性和准确性尚不明确;没有考虑估计方法的分类,缺乏对估计方法选择的指导。在这项工作中,重点放在估计赫斯特指数的十三种主要方法上。为了降低用计算机程序实现估计方法的难度,本文简要讨论了估计方法的数学原理,并给出了算法的伪代码,给出了必要的细节。期望该调查能够帮助研究人员在实际情况中简单地选择、实现和应用感兴趣的估计算法。
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A Survey of Methods for Estimating Hurst Exponent of Time Sequence
The Hurst exponent is a significant indicator for characterizing the self-similarity and long-term memory properties of time sequences. It has wide applications in physics, technologies, engineering, mathematics, statistics, economics, psychology and so on. Currently, available methods for estimating the Hurst exponent of time sequences can be divided into different categories: time-domain methods and spectrum-domain methods based on the representation of time sequence, linear regression methods and Bayesian methods based on parameter estimation methods. Although various methods are discussed in literature, there are still some deficiencies: the descriptions of the estimation algorithms are just mathematics-oriented and the pseudo-codes are missing; the effectiveness and accuracy of the estimation algorithms are not clear; the classification of estimation methods is not considered and there is a lack of guidance for selecting the estimation methods. In this work, the emphasis is put on thirteen dominant methods for estimating the Hurst exponent. For the purpose of decreasing the difficulty of implementing the estimation methods with computer programs, the mathematical principles are discussed briefly and the pseudo-codes of algorithms are presented with necessary details. It is expected that the survey could help the researchers to select, implement and apply the estimation algorithms of interest in practical situations in an easy way.
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