Mayday! Mayday! The airlines stock returns are failing. Analysis of the impact of Russia–Ukraine war

Purpose

This paper investigates the short-term market impact of the beginning of the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine (February 24, 2022) on a set of airline stocks listed.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses an event study methodology, cross-section analyses and interaction effects to study the effect of the war on airline stock prices and firm-specific characteristics that explain the cumulative abnormal return.

Findings

The authors observe a negative and statistically significant stock price reaction at and around the beginning of the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine, for 74 listed airlines. These results are consistent with investment portfolio rebalancing and asset pricing perspective. Moreover, this study's results show a higher negative stock market reaction for airlines based in Europe. Empirical evidence suggests the existence of a “proximity penalty” for European companies. Finally, this study's results provide insights into which airline-specific characteristics emerge as value drivers. Larger, well-capitalized (high liquidity and low debt) and profitable airlines firms with less institutional ownership have superior stock market returns and show more able to handle with the losses resulting from the war.

Originality/value

This paper fills a gap in the literature about the impact of the Russia–Ukraine war on the airline industry.