{"title":"专业预测人员相信菲利普斯曲线吗？","authors":"Michael P. Clements","doi":"10.1016/j.ijforecast.2023.11.004","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The expectations-augmented Phillips curve (PC) is a cornerstone of many macroeconomic models. We consider the extent to which professional forecasters’ inflation and unemployment rate forecasts are ‘theory consistent’, and find much heterogeneity. Perceptions about the responsiveness of inflation to the unemployment rate are shown to depend on whether the respondent was active earlier or later during the period 1981–2019, and on whether the respondent happened to forecast at times of tight labour markets.</p><p>Theory consistency is related to more accurate forecasts at the shortest horizon but not significantly so at longer horizons. At longer horizons PC-model heterogeneity accounts for the lion’s share of the observed disagreement in reported inflation forecasts.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":14061,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Forecasting","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.9000,"publicationDate":"2023-12-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207023001140/pdfft?md5=06a0e455a8ea1d767ee38797b3cc93ab&pid=1-s2.0-S0169207023001140-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Do professional forecasters believe in the Phillips curve?\",\"authors\":\"Michael P. Clements\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.ijforecast.2023.11.004\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>The expectations-augmented Phillips curve (PC) is a cornerstone of many macroeconomic models. We consider the extent to which professional forecasters’ inflation and unemployment rate forecasts are ‘theory consistent’, and find much heterogeneity. Perceptions about the responsiveness of inflation to the unemployment rate are shown to depend on whether the respondent was active earlier or later during the period 1981–2019, and on whether the respondent happened to forecast at times of tight labour markets.</p><p>Theory consistency is related to more accurate forecasts at the shortest horizon but not significantly so at longer horizons. At longer horizons PC-model heterogeneity accounts for the lion’s share of the observed disagreement in reported inflation forecasts.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":14061,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"International Journal of Forecasting\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":6.9000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-12-08\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207023001140/pdfft?md5=06a0e455a8ea1d767ee38797b3cc93ab&pid=1-s2.0-S0169207023001140-main.pdf\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"International Journal of Forecasting\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207023001140\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International Journal of Forecasting","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207023001140","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Do professional forecasters believe in the Phillips curve?
The expectations-augmented Phillips curve (PC) is a cornerstone of many macroeconomic models. We consider the extent to which professional forecasters’ inflation and unemployment rate forecasts are ‘theory consistent’, and find much heterogeneity. Perceptions about the responsiveness of inflation to the unemployment rate are shown to depend on whether the respondent was active earlier or later during the period 1981–2019, and on whether the respondent happened to forecast at times of tight labour markets.
Theory consistency is related to more accurate forecasts at the shortest horizon but not significantly so at longer horizons. At longer horizons PC-model heterogeneity accounts for the lion’s share of the observed disagreement in reported inflation forecasts.
期刊介绍：
The International Journal of Forecasting is a leading journal in its field that publishes high quality refereed papers. It aims to bridge the gap between theory and practice, making forecasting useful and relevant for decision and policy makers. The journal places strong emphasis on empirical studies, evaluation activities, implementation research, and improving the practice of forecasting. It welcomes various points of view and encourages debate to find solutions to field-related problems. The journal is the official publication of the International Institute of Forecasters (IIF) and is indexed in Sociological Abstracts, Journal of Economic Literature, Statistical Theory and Method Abstracts, INSPEC, Current Contents, UMI Data Courier, RePEc, Academic Journal Guide, CIS, IAOR, and Social Sciences Citation Index.
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