Climate Volatility, Wheat Productivity and Food Security: A Quantile Regression Analysis

Climate change's effects on food crop production are a serious concern due to its linkages with food insecurity. This study attempts to investigate the question of whether and to what extend climate volatility has affected the yield of a major staple crop, the wheat, in the District Faisalabad, the largest agricultural city in Pakistan. Daily base data of temperature and rainfall over the past 33 years is collected, and the average and volatility measures of climate conditions are calculated for the whole crop period as well as for the vegetative and reproductive stages of crop growth. The quantile regression technique is utilized to estimate the influence of climate volatility on wheat yield distribution. The results provide convincing evidence that climate volatility is more damaging to food crops as compared to the gradual changes in rainfall and temperature. Besides, climate volatility is found to have significant effects on both the vegetative and reproductive stages of wheat crop growth. This research unravels the heterogeneous impact of temperature and rainfall across the vegetative and reproductive stages of wheat crop growth. It is hoped that the findings are important to guide policymakers to cope with uncertain climate shocks.