Social Solidarity and Crime: The COVID-19 Effect in Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago

Previous studies used the strain, rational choice, or routine activities approach to explain changes in crime levels after the COVID-19 pandemic. Observed changes have not always been consistent with predictions made by these theoretical approaches. This study uses a social solidarity approach which can be used to better explain observed changes. It is argued that national disasters, such as pandemics, can result in an increase in social solidarity which can have a suppressive effect on crime. Official crime data from Trinidad and Tobago and Jamaica are used to explore this hypothesis. The results from auto-regressive integrated moving average modeling show that there was a decline in crime in Trinidad and Tobago but not in Jamaica after COVID-19 restrictions. The study argues that social solidarity may have increased in Trinidad and Tobago, but not in Jamaica, accounting for the observed differences.