Lorenzo Di Domenico, Maria Cristina Barbieri Góes, Ettore Gallo
{"title":"分配、资本密集度和公共债务与国内生产总值之比:投入产出-股票流一致模型","authors":"Lorenzo Di Domenico, Maria Cristina Barbieri Góes, Ettore Gallo","doi":"10.1007/s40888-023-00318-7","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>The paper analyzes the relationship between the interest rate and the public debt-to-GDP ratio through the lens of the Classical-Keynesian approach. We focus on the value dimension as a transmission channel of monetary policy, modeling how a change in the interest rate set by the central bank affects the economy’s capital intensity and, in turn, debt ratios. We do so by developing a Stock-Flow Consistent Supermultiplier model (SFC-SM) based on a simplified Input–Output structure of production, showing that the effect of an increase in the interest rate on public debt-to-GDP ratio will depend on the impact exerted by the shock on the capital intensity through changes in relative prices. Lastly, we calibrate the model, showing the possible emergence of reverse capital deepening; past a threshold, any base rate hike produces an increase in the public debt-to-GDP ratio by decreasing the capital intensity of the economy.</p>","PeriodicalId":44858,"journal":{"name":"Economia Politica","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8000,"publicationDate":"2023-12-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Distribution, capital intensity and public debt-to-GDP ratio: an input output—stock flow consistent model\",\"authors\":\"Lorenzo Di Domenico, Maria Cristina Barbieri Góes, Ettore Gallo\",\"doi\":\"10.1007/s40888-023-00318-7\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>The paper analyzes the relationship between the interest rate and the public debt-to-GDP ratio through the lens of the Classical-Keynesian approach. We focus on the value dimension as a transmission channel of monetary policy, modeling how a change in the interest rate set by the central bank affects the economy’s capital intensity and, in turn, debt ratios. We do so by developing a Stock-Flow Consistent Supermultiplier model (SFC-SM) based on a simplified Input–Output structure of production, showing that the effect of an increase in the interest rate on public debt-to-GDP ratio will depend on the impact exerted by the shock on the capital intensity through changes in relative prices. Lastly, we calibrate the model, showing the possible emergence of reverse capital deepening; past a threshold, any base rate hike produces an increase in the public debt-to-GDP ratio by decreasing the capital intensity of the economy.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":44858,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Economia Politica\",\"volume\":\"15 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-12-13\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Economia Politica\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s40888-023-00318-7\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Economia Politica","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s40888-023-00318-7","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Distribution, capital intensity and public debt-to-GDP ratio: an input output—stock flow consistent model
The paper analyzes the relationship between the interest rate and the public debt-to-GDP ratio through the lens of the Classical-Keynesian approach. We focus on the value dimension as a transmission channel of monetary policy, modeling how a change in the interest rate set by the central bank affects the economy’s capital intensity and, in turn, debt ratios. We do so by developing a Stock-Flow Consistent Supermultiplier model (SFC-SM) based on a simplified Input–Output structure of production, showing that the effect of an increase in the interest rate on public debt-to-GDP ratio will depend on the impact exerted by the shock on the capital intensity through changes in relative prices. Lastly, we calibrate the model, showing the possible emergence of reverse capital deepening; past a threshold, any base rate hike produces an increase in the public debt-to-GDP ratio by decreasing the capital intensity of the economy.
期刊介绍:
This journal publishes peer-reviewed articles that link theory and analysis in political economy, promoting a deeper understanding of economic realities and more effective courses of policy action. Established in 1984, the journal has kept pace with the times in disseminating high-quality and influential research aimed at establishing fruitful links between theories, approaches and institutions. With this relaunch (which combines Springer’s worldwide scientific scope with the Italian cultural roots of il Mulino and Fondazione Edison, whose research has been published by the two mentioned publishers for many years), the journal further reinforces its position in the European and international economic debate and scientific community. Furthermore, this move increases its pluralistic attention to the role that – at the micro, sectoral, and macro level – institutions and innovation play in the unfolding of economic change at different stages of development.