利用飞机辅助最佳路径数据评估热带气旋的实际风压与调整风压关系

IF 1.7 4区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Sola Pub Date : 2023-12-15 DOI:10.2151/sola.2024-004
Sho Arakane, Takeshi Horinouchi
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引用次数: 0

摘要

热带气旋(TC)的最大持续风速(Vmax)和最低海平面气压(Pmin)之间的关系被称为风压关系(WPR),本文利用飞机观测的最佳路径数据对这一关系进行了研究。平均而言,在给定 Vmax(Pmin)的情况下,Pmin(Vmax)在第 25 个百分位数和第 75 个百分位数之间变化 8.5 hPa(11.0 kt),在第 10 个百分位数和第 90 个百分位数之间变化 17.1 hPa(22.6 kt);还量化了德沃夏克海流强度(CI)数的相应变化。此外,还研究了调整后的 WPR,其中通过多元线性回归纳入了环境条件。利用该方法可将第 25 和 75 百分位数之间的变化减小到 6.9 百帕(9.5 千吨),将第 10 和 90 百分位数之间的变化减小到 13.0 百帕(18.9 千吨)。这些余下的变化表明了 WPR 的内在可变性,表明需要进一步利用观测资料来改进 TC 的强度估计。
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Evaluations of Actual and Adjusted Wind–Pressure Relationship of Tropical Cyclone Using Aircraft-Assisted Best Track Data

The relationship between maximum sustained wind speed (Vmax) and minimum sea level pressure (Pmin) of tropical cyclones (TC), which is called the wind–pressure relationship (WPR), is investigated by using best track data in which aircraft observations are used. On average, for given Vmax (Pmin), Pmin (Vmax) varies by 8.5 hPa (11.0 kt) between the 25th and 75th percentiles, and it varies by 17.1 hPa (22.6 kt) between the 10th and 90th percentiles; corresponding variations in the Dvorak Current Intensity (CI) numbers are also quantified. Also investigated is an adjusted WPR in which environmental conditions are incorporated through multiple linear regression. Its utilization reduces the variations to 6.9 hPa (9.5 kt) between the 25th and 75th percentiles and 13.0 hPa (18.9 kt) between the 10th and 90th percentiles. These remaining variations indicate intrinsic variability of WPR, suggesting a need for further utilization of observations to improve the intensity estimation of TCs.

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来源期刊
Sola
Sola 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
3.50
自引率
21.10%
发文量
41
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: SOLA (Scientific Online Letters on the Atmosphere) is a peer-reviewed, Open Access, online-only journal. It publishes scientific discoveries and advances in understanding in meteorology, climatology, the atmospheric sciences and related interdisciplinary areas. SOLA focuses on presenting new and scientifically rigorous observations, experiments, data analyses, numerical modeling, data assimilation, and technical developments as quickly as possible. It achieves this via rapid peer review and publication of research letters, published as Regular Articles. Published and supported by the Meteorological Society of Japan, the journal follows strong research and publication ethics principles. Most manuscripts receive a first decision within one month and a decision upon resubmission within a further month. Accepted articles are then quickly published on the journal’s website, where they are easily accessible to our broad audience.
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