Sediment records from Lake Nipissing (ON, Canada) register a lake-wide multi-trophic response to climate change and reveal its possible role for increased cyanobacterial blooms

Recurring cyanobacterial blooms have been reported in Lake Nipissing (Ontario, Canada) since at least 2000. However, monitoring data indicate that surface water nutrient concentrations have not increased over the past ∼45 years in this large, shallow, mesotrophic lake. Applying paleolimnological methods, we establish baseline environmental conditions and extend the Lake Nipissing water quality data to pre-industrial times. Lake-wide assessment of changes in nutrient status, algal production, and effects of climate warming are provided by examining: 1) modern and pre-industrial sedimentary diatom assemblages from nine locations; 2) temporal trends in sedimentary photosynthetic pigments over ∼200 years from five locations; and 3) detailed sedimentary profiles of diatom and chironomid assemblage composition from Callander Bay, spanning the past ∼200 years. A pronounced shift in diatom assemblage composition was registered at all sites with pre-industrial sediments dominated by Aulacoseira spp. and modern samples dominated by Discostella stelligera. The detailed diatom analysis for Callander Bay indicated that this shift occurred ca. 1990. Since ca. 1975, cyanobacterial production (spectrally inferred from sediments) exceeded the ∼200-year mean and matches the observed increase in bloom reports. Twentieth century shifts in chironomid assemblages in Callander Bay from Procladius to Chironomus spp. dominance indicate lower hypolimnetic oxygen in recent decades. Collectively, these changes suggest that previously polymictic Lake Nipissing is now experiencing periods of thermal stratification and development of transient anoxia in bottom waters. These conditions are more prevalent and widespread in modern Lake Nipissing, consistent with a response to recent warming, decreased wind speed, and a longer ice-free period.