Fracture risk prediction in old Chinese people—a narrative review

With aging, the burden of osteoporotic fracture (OF) increases substantially, while China is expected to carry the greatest part in the future. The risk of fracture varies greatly across racial groups and geographic regions, and systematically organized evidence on the potential predictors for fracture risk is needed for Chinese. This review briefly introduces the epidemiology of OF and expands on the predictors and predictive tools for the risk of OF, as well as the challenges for their potential translation in the old Chinese population. There are regional differences of fracture incidence among China. The fracture incidences in Hong Kong and Taiwan have decreased in recent years, while it is still increasing in mainland China. Although the application of dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) is limited among old Chinese in the mainland, bone mineral density (BMD) by DXA has a predictive value similar to that worldwide. Other non-DXA modalities, especially heel QUS, are helpful in assessing bone health. The fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX) has a good discrimination ability for OFs, especially the FRAX with BMD. And some clinical factors have added value to FRAX, which has been verified in old Chinese. In addition, although the application of the osteoporosis self-assessment tool for Asians (OSTA) in Chinese needs further validation, it may help identify high-risk populations in areas with limited resources. Moreover, the translation use of the muscle quality and genetic or serum biomarkers in fracture prediction needs further works. More applicable and targeted fracture risk predictors and tools are still needed for the old Chinese population.