The turbulent future of expertise and training markets

Purpose

To explain how technology will replace a great deal of human labor in knowledge markets using a theory of reasoned action applied to demand and theories of procedural rationality, cost structure and system dynamics applied to supply.

Design/methodology/approach

Two illustrative scenarios are presented. The first is a third-party Best Treatments site, and its effect on the expert advice pharmaceutical representatives provide doctors. The second scenario is an online higher education business course module with embedded AI.

Findings

Both scenarios demonstrate the advantages of online expertise and teaching platforms over the in-person alternative in variable and marginal cost, ease and convenience of use, quality conformance, scalability, knowledge reach and depth and most importantly, speed of evolutionary adaptability. Despite such overwhelming advantages, a number of reasons why the substitution might be slowed are presented, and some strategies firms might adopt are discussed. Opportunities for service scholars to confirm, challenge and extend the conclusions are presented throughout the paper.

Originality/value

Increasing cost structure and adaptability advantages of online technology and AI over in-person delivery of expertise and training services are demonstrated. It is also demonstrated that the innovation-imitation cycle is accelerating because of exogenous innovation in knowledge access and online influence networks and an endogenous effect where imitators accelerate their innovation that drives innovators to accelerate their innovation, which drives imitators to further accelerate their imitation.