分析科特迪瓦一些流域极端降水指数的过去变化和预测变化

IF 2.7 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 WATER RESOURCES Journal of Water and Climate Change Pub Date : 2023-12-19 DOI:10.2166/wcc.2023.365
N’da Jocelyne Maryse Christine Amichiatchi, Jean Hounkpè, G. Soro, Ojelabi Oluwatoyin Khadijat, I. Larbi, A. Limantol, A. M. Alhassan, T. A. G. Bi, A. E. Lawin
{"title":"分析科特迪瓦一些流域极端降水指数的过去变化和预测变化","authors":"N’da Jocelyne Maryse Christine Amichiatchi, Jean Hounkpè, G. Soro, Ojelabi Oluwatoyin Khadijat, I. Larbi, A. Limantol, A. M. Alhassan, T. A. G. Bi, A. E. Lawin","doi":"10.2166/wcc.2023.365","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"\n The purpose of this study is to analyse trends in annual rainfall extremes over five watersheds within Côte d'Ivoire using observed data (1976–2017) and projected (2020–2050) rainfall data from the fourth version of the Rossby Centre regional atmospheric model, RCA4, for the representative concentration pathways RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Four rainfall extreme indices, namely, the consecutive dry days (CDD), maximum annual rainfall (Pmaxan), very wet day (R95p), and maximum 5-day rainfall (Rx5days), were considered for trend analysis by using the non-parametric modified Mann–Kendall test and the distribution mapping bias-correction technique to adjust the simulated regional climate model climate of the simulated daily precipitation. As a result, it is found that during the period 1976–2017, there was a significant downward trend in the drought-related index (CDD) at the Bagoue, Baya, Agneby, and Lobo watersheds. The Baya and N'zo watersheds also experienced a significant downward trend under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The flood-related indices (Pmaxan, R95p, and Rx5days) show a clear downward trend in the recorded data for almost all the considered watersheds and generally a significant upward trend for both cases. These findings indicate that the watersheds are vulnerable to climate-induced disasters.","PeriodicalId":49150,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Water and Climate Change","volume":" 116","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7000,"publicationDate":"2023-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Analyse of past and projected changes in extreme precipitation indices in some watersheds in côte d'Ivoire\",\"authors\":\"N’da Jocelyne Maryse Christine Amichiatchi, Jean Hounkpè, G. Soro, Ojelabi Oluwatoyin Khadijat, I. Larbi, A. Limantol, A. M. Alhassan, T. A. G. Bi, A. E. Lawin\",\"doi\":\"10.2166/wcc.2023.365\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"\\n The purpose of this study is to analyse trends in annual rainfall extremes over five watersheds within Côte d'Ivoire using observed data (1976–2017) and projected (2020–2050) rainfall data from the fourth version of the Rossby Centre regional atmospheric model, RCA4, for the representative concentration pathways RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Four rainfall extreme indices, namely, the consecutive dry days (CDD), maximum annual rainfall (Pmaxan), very wet day (R95p), and maximum 5-day rainfall (Rx5days), were considered for trend analysis by using the non-parametric modified Mann–Kendall test and the distribution mapping bias-correction technique to adjust the simulated regional climate model climate of the simulated daily precipitation. As a result, it is found that during the period 1976–2017, there was a significant downward trend in the drought-related index (CDD) at the Bagoue, Baya, Agneby, and Lobo watersheds. The Baya and N'zo watersheds also experienced a significant downward trend under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The flood-related indices (Pmaxan, R95p, and Rx5days) show a clear downward trend in the recorded data for almost all the considered watersheds and generally a significant upward trend for both cases. These findings indicate that the watersheds are vulnerable to climate-induced disasters.\",\"PeriodicalId\":49150,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Water and Climate Change\",\"volume\":\" 116\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.7000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-12-19\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Water and Climate Change\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"93\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2023.365\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"环境科学与生态学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"WATER RESOURCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Water and Climate Change","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2023.365","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"WATER RESOURCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究的目的是利用观测数据(1976-2017 年)和第四版罗斯比中心区域大气模型 RCA4 针对代表性浓度路径 RCP 4.5 和 RCP 8.5 预测的降雨数据(2020-2050 年),分析科特迪瓦五个流域的年极端降雨量趋势。利用非参数修正的 Mann-Kendall 检验和分布图偏差校正技术调整模拟日降水量的模拟区域气候模式气候,对连续干旱日(CDD)、最大年降水量(Pmaxan)、极湿日(R95p)和最大 5 日降水量(Rx5days)四个降水极端指数进行了趋势分析。结果发现,1976-2017 年期间,巴古埃流域、巴亚流域、阿格尼比流域和罗布泊流域的干旱相关指数(CDD)呈显著下降趋势。在 RCP 4.5 和 RCP 8.5 情景下,巴亚和恩佐流域也出现了明显的下降趋势。几乎所有流域的洪水相关指数(Pmaxan、R95p 和 Rx5days)在记录数据中都显示出明显的下降趋势,而在两种情况下一般都有显著的上升趋势。这些发现表明,这些流域很容易受到气候引起的灾害的影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
查看原文
分享 分享
微信好友 朋友圈 QQ好友 复制链接
本刊更多论文
Analyse of past and projected changes in extreme precipitation indices in some watersheds in côte d'Ivoire
The purpose of this study is to analyse trends in annual rainfall extremes over five watersheds within Côte d'Ivoire using observed data (1976–2017) and projected (2020–2050) rainfall data from the fourth version of the Rossby Centre regional atmospheric model, RCA4, for the representative concentration pathways RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Four rainfall extreme indices, namely, the consecutive dry days (CDD), maximum annual rainfall (Pmaxan), very wet day (R95p), and maximum 5-day rainfall (Rx5days), were considered for trend analysis by using the non-parametric modified Mann–Kendall test and the distribution mapping bias-correction technique to adjust the simulated regional climate model climate of the simulated daily precipitation. As a result, it is found that during the period 1976–2017, there was a significant downward trend in the drought-related index (CDD) at the Bagoue, Baya, Agneby, and Lobo watersheds. The Baya and N'zo watersheds also experienced a significant downward trend under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The flood-related indices (Pmaxan, R95p, and Rx5days) show a clear downward trend in the recorded data for almost all the considered watersheds and generally a significant upward trend for both cases. These findings indicate that the watersheds are vulnerable to climate-induced disasters.
求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
CiteScore
4.80
自引率
10.70%
发文量
168
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Journal of Water and Climate Change publishes refereed research and practitioner papers on all aspects of water science, technology, management and innovation in response to climate change, with emphasis on reduction of energy usage.
期刊最新文献
Analysis of different hypotheses for modeling air–water exchange and temperature evolution in a tropical reservoir Accounting for climate change in the water infrastructure design: evaluating approaches and recommending a hybrid framework Climatic characteristics and main weather patterns of extreme precipitation in the middle Yangtze River valley Water quality prediction: A data-driven approach exploiting advanced machine learning algorithms with data augmentation Consequence assessment of the La Giang dike breach in the Ca river system, Vietnam
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
已复制链接
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
×
扫码分享
扫码分享
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1