浙江省常绿先锋树种五味子对气候变化的适应性分析

IF 2.4 2区 农林科学 Q1 FORESTRY Forests Pub Date : 2023-12-14 DOI:10.3390/f14122438
Chuping Wu, Jianzhong Fan, Yonghong Xu, Bo Jiang, Jiejie Jiao, Liangjin Yao
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引用次数: 0

摘要

近年来,全球气候变化频繁,导致高温和干旱等极端天气事件频发。在气候变化的背景下,植物的潜在分布区域将发生变化。因此,有必要预测气候变化下植物的潜在地理分布模式。超级海胆(Schima superba)是一种具有重要生态和经济价值的植物物种,在生态恢复和维护环境稳定方面发挥着至关重要的作用。因此,预测其在浙江省适宜栖息地的潜在变化意义重大。我们利用 MaxEnt 模型和浙江省 831 个海巴鼠分布监测点的数据,结合 12 个选定的生物气候变量,预测了海巴鼠栖息地适宜性的适应性。我们发现:(1) MaxEnt 模型在重复实验中的平均 AUC 值为 0.804,标准偏差为 0.014,这表明预测的可靠性很高。(2)浙江省海马(Schima superba)适宜栖息地总面积(适宜度> 0.05)为 8.76 万平方公里,其中高适宜区、中适宜区和低适宜区面积分别为 2.94 万平方公里、2.57 万平方公里和 3.25 万平方公里。(3)同样,海拔、降水和温度也是影响超级海马分布的主要气候变量。超级海马主要分布在海拔 500 米以上、最热季节降水量超过 140 毫米的地区。在海拔 1200 米至 1400 米的地区,超级海马的分布概率达到峰值。这里的降水量在 300 毫米至 350 毫米之间,湿度大,最热季节的降水量在 160 毫米至 170 毫米之间,年温度在 28 ℃ 至 31 ℃ 之间。因此,我们的研究结果表明,气候变化会严重影响海马的适宜栖息地面积。我们的研究还揭示了浙江省不同地理区域赤麻黄的生态特征和适应机制。未来的研究应关注植物适应策略与环境变化的关系,以及在生态系统保护和可持续发展中的应用,以促进植物生境适应性研究的发展和应用。
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Adaptability Analysis of the Evergreen Pioneer Tree Species Schima superba to Climate Change in Zhejiang Province
In recent years, frequent global climate change has led to extreme weather events, such as high temperatures and droughts. Under the backdrop of climate change, the potential distribution zones of plants will undergo alterations. Therefore, it is necessary to predict the potential geographical distribution patterns of plants under climate change. Schima superba, a plant species with significant ecological and economic value, plays a crucial role in ecological restoration and maintaining environmental stability. Therefore, predicting potential changes in its suitable habitat in Zhejiang Province is significant. The MaxEnt model and combined data from 831 monitoring sites where Schima superba is distributed in Zhejiang Province with 12 selected bioclimatic variables were used to predict habitat suitability adaptability. We found that (1) the average AUC value of the MaxEnt model in repeated experiments was 0.804, with a standard deviation of 0.014, which indicates high reliability in predictions. (2) The total suitable habitat area for Schima superba in Zhejiang Province (suitability value > 0.05) is 87,600 km2, with high-suitability, moderate-suitability, and low-suitability areas covering 29,400 km2, 25,700 km2, and 32,500 km2, respectively. (3) Likewise, elevation, precipitation, and temperature are the dominant climatic variables that influence the distribution of Schima superba. Schima superba mainly occurs in areas with an elevation above 500 m and precipitation over 140 mm during the hottest season. The probability of Schima superba distribution reaches its peak at elevations between 1200 and 1400 m. Here, the precipitation ranges from 300 to 350 mm with high humidity, between 160 and 170 mm during the hottest season, and an annual temperature range between 28 and 31 °C. Therefore, our results indicate that climate change significantly affects the suitable habitat area of Schima superba. We also reveal the ecological characteristics and adaptation mechanisms of Schima superba in different geographical regions of Zhejiang Province. Future research should focus on the relationship between plant adaptation strategies and environmental changes, as well as applications in ecosystem protection and sustainable development, to promote the development and application of plant habitat adaptability research.
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来源期刊
Forests
Forests FORESTRY-
CiteScore
4.40
自引率
17.20%
发文量
1823
审稿时长
19.02 days
期刊介绍: Forests (ISSN 1999-4907) is an international and cross-disciplinary scholarly journal of forestry and forest ecology. It publishes research papers, short communications and review papers. There is no restriction on the length of the papers. Our aim is to encourage scientists to publish their experimental and theoretical research in as much detail as possible. Full experimental and/or methodical details must be provided for research articles.
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