基于 LSTM 和高斯过程回归建模的超市进货策略研究

Wei Weng, Yifu Lin, Jiawei Wu
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摘要

本文对生鲜超市蔬菜商品销售面临的挑战进行了深入研究,旨在为优化超市运营提供一套全面的管理策略。首先,通过描述性统计分析了六种蔬菜的销售量和销售额,并通过时间序列处理探讨了其周期性趋势;其次,通过绘制相关矩阵和斯皮尔曼系数热图,发现了食用蔬菜与水生根茎类、食用蔬菜与茄果类之间的良好相关性。接着,本文分析了成本加成定价与总销售额之间的关系,并使用 LSTM 时间序列预测模型预测了未来一周蔬菜的总补货量和定价,并使用均方根误差(RMSE)评估了模型性能。最后,利用高斯回归模型对小样本数据进行预测,为商超制定了最优补货量和定价策略,使商超收益最大化。研究结果表明,通过这些方法可以有效提高生鲜超市的库存管理效率。
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Research on Establishing Inbound Strategies for Supermarkets based on LSTM and Gaussian Process Regression Modeling
 This paper provides an in-depth study on the challenges of vegetable merchandising in fresh produce supermarkets, aiming to provide a comprehensive set of management strategies to optimize supermarket operations. First, the sales volume and sales of six types of vegetables were analyzed by descriptive statistics and the cyclical trend was explored by time series processing; second, good correlations between edibles and aquatic roots and tubers as well as edibles and eggplants were found by plotting correlation matrices and heat maps of Spearman's coefficients. Next, this paper analyzed the relationship between cost-plus pricing and total sales and predicted the total replenishment and pricing of vegetables in the coming week using an LSTM time series forecasting model and evaluated the model performance using root mean square error (RMSE). Finally, a Gaussian regression model was used to predict a small sample of data to develop an optimal replenishment volume and pricing strategy for the superstore, which maximized the superstore's revenue. The results of the study show that the inventory management efficiency of fresh supermarkets can be effectively improved by these methods.
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