使用旋转双变量 Copulas 对降雨和气温进行建模和模拟

IF 3.1 Q2 WATER RESOURCES Hydrology Pub Date : 2023-12-12 DOI:10.3390/hydrology10120236
Giovanni De Luca, Giorgia Rivieccio
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引用次数: 0

摘要

气候变化是一项重大的环境挑战,影响着水资源、农业、健康和人类生活的其他方面。二元模型是一种用于分析降雨量和温度等变量之间关系的统计方法。皮尔逊相关系数、Kendall's tau 或 Spearman's rank correlation 是一些用于双变量建模的测量方法。然而,copula 函数可以描述两个或多个变量之间的依存结构,可有效用于描述降雨与气温之间的关系。尽管有关降雨和气温二元建模的文献很多,但有时很难找到灵活而复杂的二元模型。在本文中,我们使用了旋转 copula 函数,它可以安排任何类型的经验检测到的依赖关系,尤其是负依赖关系。该方法适用于意大利一个城市的降雨量和气温的二元日时间序列。估计出的旋转 copula 具有重要意义,因此可用于模拟极端事件的影响。
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Modeling and Simulating Rainfall and Temperature Using Rotated Bivariate Copulas
Climate change is a significant environmental challenge that affects water resources, agriculture, health, and other aspects of human life. Bivariate modeling is a statistical method used to analyze the relationship between variables such as rainfall and temperature. The Pearson correlation coefficient, Kendall’s tau, or Spearman’s rank correlation are some measures used for bivariate modeling. However, copula functions can describe the dependence structure between two or more variables and can be effectively used to describe the relationship between rainfall and temperature. Despite the literature on bivariate modeling of rainfalls and temperature being extensive, finding flexible and sophisticated bivariate models is sometimes difficult. In this paper, we use rotated copula functions that can arrange any type of dependence that is empirically detected, especially negative dependence. The methodology is applied to an Italian municipality’s bivariate daily time series of rainfall and temperature. The estimated rotated copula is significant and, therefore, can be used for simulating the effects of extreme events.
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来源期刊
Hydrology
Hydrology Earth and Planetary Sciences-Earth-Surface Processes
CiteScore
4.90
自引率
21.90%
发文量
192
审稿时长
6 weeks
期刊介绍: Journal of Hydrology publishes original research papers and comprehensive reviews in all the subfields of the hydrological sciences, including water based management and policy issues that impact on economics and society. These comprise, but are not limited to the physical, chemical, biogeochemical, stochastic and systems aspects of surface and groundwater hydrology, hydrometeorology, hydrogeology and hydrogeophysics. Relevant topics incorporating the insights and methodologies of disciplines such as climatology, water resource systems, ecohydrology, geomorphology, soil science, instrumentation and remote sensing, data and information sciences, civil and environmental engineering are within scope. Social science perspectives on hydrological problems such as resource and ecological economics, sociology, psychology and behavioural science, management and policy analysis are also invited. Multi-and interdisciplinary analyses of hydrological problems are within scope. The science published in the Journal of Hydrology is relevant to catchment scales rather than exclusively to a local scale or site. Studies focused on urban hydrological issues are included.
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