{"title":"使用旋转双变量 Copulas 对降雨和气温进行建模和模拟","authors":"Giovanni De Luca, Giorgia Rivieccio","doi":"10.3390/hydrology10120236","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Climate change is a significant environmental challenge that affects water resources, agriculture, health, and other aspects of human life. Bivariate modeling is a statistical method used to analyze the relationship between variables such as rainfall and temperature. The Pearson correlation coefficient, Kendall’s tau, or Spearman’s rank correlation are some measures used for bivariate modeling. However, copula functions can describe the dependence structure between two or more variables and can be effectively used to describe the relationship between rainfall and temperature. Despite the literature on bivariate modeling of rainfalls and temperature being extensive, finding flexible and sophisticated bivariate models is sometimes difficult. In this paper, we use rotated copula functions that can arrange any type of dependence that is empirically detected, especially negative dependence. The methodology is applied to an Italian municipality’s bivariate daily time series of rainfall and temperature. The estimated rotated copula is significant and, therefore, can be used for simulating the effects of extreme events.","PeriodicalId":37372,"journal":{"name":"Hydrology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.1000,"publicationDate":"2023-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Modeling and Simulating Rainfall and Temperature Using Rotated Bivariate Copulas\",\"authors\":\"Giovanni De Luca, Giorgia Rivieccio\",\"doi\":\"10.3390/hydrology10120236\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Climate change is a significant environmental challenge that affects water resources, agriculture, health, and other aspects of human life. Bivariate modeling is a statistical method used to analyze the relationship between variables such as rainfall and temperature. The Pearson correlation coefficient, Kendall’s tau, or Spearman’s rank correlation are some measures used for bivariate modeling. However, copula functions can describe the dependence structure between two or more variables and can be effectively used to describe the relationship between rainfall and temperature. Despite the literature on bivariate modeling of rainfalls and temperature being extensive, finding flexible and sophisticated bivariate models is sometimes difficult. In this paper, we use rotated copula functions that can arrange any type of dependence that is empirically detected, especially negative dependence. The methodology is applied to an Italian municipality’s bivariate daily time series of rainfall and temperature. The estimated rotated copula is significant and, therefore, can be used for simulating the effects of extreme events.\",\"PeriodicalId\":37372,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Hydrology\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.1000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-12-12\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Hydrology\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology10120236\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"WATER RESOURCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Hydrology","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology10120236","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"WATER RESOURCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Modeling and Simulating Rainfall and Temperature Using Rotated Bivariate Copulas
Climate change is a significant environmental challenge that affects water resources, agriculture, health, and other aspects of human life. Bivariate modeling is a statistical method used to analyze the relationship between variables such as rainfall and temperature. The Pearson correlation coefficient, Kendall’s tau, or Spearman’s rank correlation are some measures used for bivariate modeling. However, copula functions can describe the dependence structure between two or more variables and can be effectively used to describe the relationship between rainfall and temperature. Despite the literature on bivariate modeling of rainfalls and temperature being extensive, finding flexible and sophisticated bivariate models is sometimes difficult. In this paper, we use rotated copula functions that can arrange any type of dependence that is empirically detected, especially negative dependence. The methodology is applied to an Italian municipality’s bivariate daily time series of rainfall and temperature. The estimated rotated copula is significant and, therefore, can be used for simulating the effects of extreme events.
HydrologyEarth and Planetary Sciences-Earth-Surface Processes
CiteScore
4.90
自引率
21.90%
发文量
192
审稿时长
6 weeks
期刊介绍:
Journal of Hydrology publishes original research papers and comprehensive reviews in all the subfields of the hydrological sciences, including water based management and policy issues that impact on economics and society. These comprise, but are not limited to the physical, chemical, biogeochemical, stochastic and systems aspects of surface and groundwater hydrology, hydrometeorology, hydrogeology and hydrogeophysics. Relevant topics incorporating the insights and methodologies of disciplines such as climatology, water resource systems, ecohydrology, geomorphology, soil science, instrumentation and remote sensing, data and information sciences, civil and environmental engineering are within scope. Social science perspectives on hydrological problems such as resource and ecological economics, sociology, psychology and behavioural science, management and policy analysis are also invited. Multi-and interdisciplinary analyses of hydrological problems are within scope. The science published in the Journal of Hydrology is relevant to catchment scales rather than exclusively to a local scale or site. Studies focused on urban hydrological issues are included.