摩洛哥通过货币供应和公共开支实现经济复苏:一项经验调查

Jihane Benkhaira, Hafid El Hassani
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文旨在估算 1990-2021 年期间的自回归向量模型,以分析公共开支和货币供应增加对摩洛哥经济活动的影响。然后,利用自回归向量模型,对摩洛哥的情况进行了实证研究,以研究 1990 年至 2021 年这些工具在摩洛哥的有效性。脉冲响应函数分析和预测误差方差分解显示,公共支出对国内生产总值的影响不大,而货币供应量对刺激摩洛哥经济活动的增长具有实际作用。此外,利用向量自回归模型、脉冲响应函数、方差分解技术和因果关系检验进行的分析为研究人员、从业人员和政策制定者提供了重要的见解,以指导他们制定更有效、更有弹性的经济战略。这项研究的结果不仅阐明了当前的恢复战略,还有助于加强经济体抵御未来潜在冲击的能力。
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Economic recovery through the money supply and public spending in Morocco: an empirical investigation

Purpose

The present article aims to estimate an autoregressive vector model covering the period of 1990–2021 to analyze the effect of public spending and monetary supply increases in economic activity in Morocco.

Design/methodology/approach

A literature review on the policy of recovery with fiscal and monetary tools and its theoretical foundations was established. Then, an empirical study on the Moroccan context was executed to study the effectiveness of these instruments in Morocco from 1990 to 2021, using autoregressive vector modeling.

Findings

The results present a state of a positive relationship and statistical significance of public spending, money supply and economic growth. The impulse response function analysis and the forecast error variance decomposition showed that public spending does not have a large impact on gross domestic product, while the money supply has a real power to stimulate the growth of economic activity in Morocco.

Originality/value

This study aims to demonstrate the positive effect of the coordination of public spending and monetary supply increases on gross domestic product in Morocco. Additionally, the analysis using vector autoregressive modeling, impulse response functions, variance decomposition techniques and causality tests, provides crucial insights to guide researchers, practitioners and policymakers in developing more effective and resilient economic strategies. The findings from this study not only illuminate immediate recovery strategies but also contribute to strengthening the resilience of economies against potential future shocks.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
3.20
自引率
7.70%
发文量
41
期刊介绍: African Journal of Economic and Management Studies (AJEMS) advances both theoretical and empirical research, informs policies and practices, and improves understanding of how economic and business decisions shape the lives of Africans. AJEMS is a multidisciplinary journal and welcomes papers from all the major disciplines in economics, business and management studies.
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