The role of subsurface instabilities for increasing chlorophyll concentrations in a warming southern Indian ocean

A warming climate is expected to intensify the stratification of the upper ocean in tropical and subtropical regions, which in turn results in decreases in the primary productivity for these oligotrophic areas. To assess if there is trended change in primary productivity in the southern Indian Ocean (IO) with known striking temperature increase, we use 17-years of satellite chlorophyll (Chl) data and model output to examine the trended changes in Chl. The results exhibited a surprisingly increase in Chl concentrations in part of the southern IO over the gyre area. To investigate the potential mechanisms underlying this Chl increase, we used temperature/salinity observations to re-evaluate stratification in the southern IO. The southern IO experienced basin-wide surface warming over the time series however there was a region of subsurface cooling at 50–100 m around 10°S. In the subtropical IO gyre, subsurface warming occurs at faster rates compare to the surface. Through the calculation of buoyancy frequency ($N^2$), we have confirmed the presence of subsurface instabilities caused by these inhomogeneous trends in the vertical thermohaline structure. This was particularly true over the southern IO gyre, which experienced sustained increase of surface mixing disturbances over the last decade—resulting in a more favorable environment for vertical transport of nutrients into the euphotic zone. A mixed layer nutrient budget analysis suggested that entrainment due to mixed layer deepening is crucial in delivering nutrients into the gyre's upper mixed layer, which fueled phytoplankton activity. This emphasizes the importance of considering subsurface instabilities when interpreting the factors that influence surface Chl variabilities. This study highlights the importance of a three-dimensional framework for examining stratification to assess future marine ecosystem responses to a changing climate.