国际足联 2022 年卡塔尔世界杯比赛成功指标之间的关系:弹性网正则化方法

IF 0.7 Q4 HOSPITALITY, LEISURE, SPORT & TOURISM Pedagogy of Physical Culture and Sports Pub Date : 2023-12-30 DOI:10.15561/26649837.2023.0605
Armend Myftiu, Agron Thaqi
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引用次数: 0

摘要

背景和研究目的。对统计指标进行分析意义重大,因为这些指标能为了解团队的显著绩效因素提供有价值的见解。本研究的目的是1) 找出在 2022 年卡塔尔世界杯足球赛中获胜球队、平局球队和失利球队的相关表现因素之间在统计学上的显著差异;2) 探索与本届赛事比赛结果最密切相关的指标。材料与方法。共分析了 64 场比赛和 32 支参赛球队。研究变量包括:射门总数、射正次数、射偏次数、射门效率、传球次数、完成传球次数、传球次数、传球失误、越位、越位成功、犯规、控球率、犯规次数、角球、角球失误、黄牌和红牌。结果摘自国际足联官方网站。数据计算采用方差分析(ANOVA)和带弹性网的序数逻辑回归。结果显示结果表明,在与进球有关的变量中,获胜球队的平均值在统计上明显更高:总射门数(P < 0.05)、射正次数(P < 0.01)和效率(P < 0.01)。根据基于信息的模型选择标准 AIC(阿凯克信息准则)和 BIC(贝叶斯信息准则),有效性和射正次数是影响比赛结果的最重要变量。它们与角球一起与成功的球队联系在一起。相比之下,传中、控球、角球和黄牌则与不太成功的球队有关。结果表明,控球率高、传球次数多但射门次数少的球队比射门次数多但控球率低的球队成绩更差。结论。这项研究强调了某些成绩指标(如射门总数、射正次数和效率)在预测球队成功方面的重要性。这些研究结果为教练和球队提供了宝贵的见解,使他们能够专注于比赛的特定方面,从而提高获胜的机会。此外,了解控球率、传球、角球和黄牌等变量的影响,也强调了在国际足球赛事中采取全面策略取得成功的重要性。
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The relationship between game success indicators in the FIFA World Cup – Qatar 2022: An elastic-net regularization approach
Background and Study Aim. The significance of analyzing statistical indicators is paramount, as they provide valuable insights into the distinguishing performance factors of teams. The purpose of this study: 1)  to identify statistically significant differences between relevant performance factors among winning, drawing, and losing teams in the 2022 Football World Cup in Qatar; 2) explore indicators that are most strongly associated with the game results in this tournament. Material and Methods. A total of 64 matches and 32 participating teams were analyzed. The variables included in the research were: total shots, shots on target, shots off target, effectiveness, passes, passes completed, crosses, crosses against, offsides committed, offsides received, fouls received, ball possession, fouls committed, corners, corners against, yellow cards and red cards. The results are extracted from the official FIFA website. The Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) and the ordinal logistic regression with elastic net were used for data calculation. Results. The results indicate that winning teams have statistically significantly higher mean values of variables related to goals scored: total shots (p < 0.05), shots on target (p < 0.01), and effectiveness (p < 0.01). According to the information-based model selection criteria AIC (Akaike information criterion) and BIC (Bayesian information criterion) effectiveness and shots on target are the most important variables regarding game results. They, along with corners, are best associated with successful teams. In contrast, crosses, ball possession, corners against, and yellow cards are associated with less successful teams. Results suggest that teams with high ball possession and large number of crosses, but fewer shots on target, have weaker results than teams with more shots on target and less ball possession. Conclusions. The study underscores the significance of certain performance indicators, such as total shots, shots on target, and effectiveness, in predicting a team's success. These findings provide valuable insights for coaches and teams to focus on specific aspects of their game to enhance their chances of winning. Additionally, understanding the impact of variables like ball possession, crosses, corners, and yellow cards emphasizes the importance of a well-rounded strategy for achieving success in international football tournaments.
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来源期刊
Pedagogy of Physical Culture and Sports
Pedagogy of Physical Culture and Sports Social Sciences-Education
CiteScore
2.00
自引率
0.00%
发文量
45
审稿时长
6 weeks
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