气候多变性及其对林波波省牧场影响的分析

IF 3 Q2 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Climate Pub Date : 2023-12-24 DOI:10.3390/cli12010002
P. Maluleke, M. Moeletsi, Mitsuru Tsubo
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引用次数: 0

摘要

近几十年来,南部非洲的气候条件发生了变化,变得更加炎热和干燥,影响到农业、卫生、水和能源等重要部门。科学研究表明,高温和不可靠的降雨相结合,会对农业生产产生不利影响。因此,本研究侧重于评估气候变异性,以及对南非林波波省牧场 38 年来的影响。研究分析了来自 15 个站点的历史气候数据,包括 1980 年至 2018 年的降雨量、最低气温和最高气温。为实现主要目标,计算了四季所有变量的各种统计数据,包括平均值、标准偏差和变异系数(CV)。结果突出显示了降雨量的巨大变异性,其中穆西纳站(71.2%)和奇翁博站(88.3%)在 9 月至 4 月的降雨季节显示出最大的变异性。最低气温和最高气温的变异性较低。Mann-Kendall 检验显示,不同站点的最低气温和降雨量既有上升趋势,也有下降趋势。值得注意的是,最高气温明显上升。这项研究为决策者提供了宝贵的气候信息,有助于农业活动的规划和管理,特别是了解气候变化如何影响牧场的饲料供应。
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Analysis of Climate Variability and Its Implications on Rangelands in the Limpopo Province
In recent decades, southern Africa has experienced a shift towards hotter and drier climate conditions, affecting vital sectors like agriculture, health, water, and energy. Scientific research has shown that the combination of high temperatures and unreliable rainfall can have detrimental effects on agricultural production. Thus, this study focused on assessing climate variability, with implications on rangelands in the Limpopo Province of South Africa over 38 years. Historical climate data from 15 stations, including rainfall and minimum and maximum temperatures from 1980 to 2018, were analysed. To achieve the main objective, various statistics including mean, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation (CV) were computed for all variables across four seasons. The results highlighted significant variability in rainfall, with Musina (71.2%) and Tshiombo (88.3%) stations displaying the highest variability during the September-to-April season. Both minimum and maximum temperatures displayed low variability. The Mann–Kendall test revealed both increasing and decreasing trends in minimum temperatures and rainfall across different stations. Notably, there was a significant increase in maximum temperatures. This study provides valuable climate information for decision makers, aiding in the planning and management of agricultural activities, particularly in understanding how climate variations affect forage availability in rangelands.
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来源期刊
Climate
Climate Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science
CiteScore
5.50
自引率
5.40%
发文量
172
审稿时长
11 weeks
期刊介绍: Climate is an independent, international and multi-disciplinary open access journal focusing on climate processes of the earth, covering all scales and involving modelling and observation methods. The scope of Climate includes: Global climate Regional climate Urban climate Multiscale climate Polar climate Tropical climate Climate downscaling Climate process and sensitivity studies Climate dynamics Climate variability (Interseasonal, interannual to decadal) Feedbacks between local, regional, and global climate change Anthropogenic climate change Climate and monsoon Cloud and precipitation predictions Past, present, and projected climate change Hydroclimate.
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