约旦废物产生量预测:替代计量经济学方法

Omar Jraid Mustafa Alhanaqtah
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引用次数: 0

摘要

文章的主要目的是利用其他方法预测约旦短期内家庭垃圾的产生,并解释极有可能影响其产生的因素。文章提供了三种方法(回归技术、时间序列模型和年增长率法)的比较分析结果。时间序列方法的结果在其他方法中处于折中位置。得出的结论是,借助带漂移的 ARIMA(0,1,0)建立时间序列模型,对约旦废物产生量的短期预测更为可靠,而回归法更适合解释输入变量对结果的影响。
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Forecasting of the Waste Generation in Jordan: Alternative Econometric Approaches
The main purpose of the article is to predict the household waste generation in Jordan in the short-run using alternative methods and explain factors highly likely impacting its generation. The results of comparative analysis made by three methods – regression technique, time series modelling and the annual growth rate method – are provided. The results of time series approach take a compromised position between the other ones. It is concluded that time series modelling with the help of ARIMA(0,1,0) with drift is more reliable for the short-run forecasting of the waste generation in Jordan while the regression is more suitable for explaining the effect of input variables on an outcome.
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