分析伊斯兰教资本市场和伊斯兰教宏观经济变量对印尼经济增长的影响

Miftahul Huda, Ahmad Suminto, Syaidatul Sa’diah, M. Kurnia Rahman Abadi
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究旨在确定伊斯兰教资本市场和伊斯兰教宏观经济变量对印度尼西亚 2017-2021 年经济增长的短期和长期影响。研究采用定量方法,所用数据为时间序列的二手数据。使用的数据分析技术是向量自回归(VAR)和向量误差修正模型(VECM)。结果显示,在短期内,印尼伊斯兰教股票指数(ISSI)、公司伊斯兰债券、家庭消费和通货膨胀对经济增长没有显著影响。从长期来看,印尼伊斯兰教股票指数(ISSI)和公司伊斯兰债券变量对国内生产总值有显著的负面影响。同时,从长期来看,通货膨胀对国内生产总值有显著的正向影响。从长期来看,家庭消费不会影响国内生产总值。同时,所有变量,即 ISSI、公司伊斯兰债券、家庭消费和通货膨胀,对国内生产总值都没有显著影响。国内生产总值对 ISSI、公司债券和通货膨胀的冲击有正向响应。同时,家庭消费对国内生产总值的影响为负。贡献最大的变量是国内生产总值、家庭消费、ISSI 和通货膨胀,贡献最小的是公司债券。
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Analysis The Influence of Sharia Capital Market and Sharia Macroeconomic Variables on Indonesia’s Economic Growth
The research aims to determine the effect of the Sharia capital market and Sharia macroeconomic variables on Indonesia's economic growth in 2017-2021 in the short and long term. The research uses quantitative methods, and the data used is secondary data from time series. The data analysis techniques used are the vector autoregression (VAR) and the vector error correction model (VECM). The results show that in the short term, the Indonesian Sharia Stock Index (ISSI), corporate sukuk, household consumption, and inflation do not have a significant effect on economic growth. The variables of the Indonesian Sharia Stock Index (ISSI) and corporate sukuk have a significant negative effect on GDP in the long run. Meanwhile, inflation has a significant positive effect on GDP in the long run. Household consumption does not affect GDP in the long run. Simultaneously, all variables, namely ISSI, corporate sukuk, household consumption, and inflation, have no significant effect on GDP. GDP responds positively to shocks that occur in ISSI, corporate bonds, and inflation. Meanwhile, household consumption has a negative response from GDP. The variable that has the largest contribution is GDP, household consumption, ISSI, and inflation, and the smallest contribution is shown by corporate sukuk.
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