社会核算矩阵:在宏观经济统计中使用的挑战和前景

A. Tatarinov
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摘要

本文介绍了关于构建俄罗斯联邦社会核算矩阵(SAM)的第一阶段研究成果,该研究是 HSE 大学家庭经济行为统计评估研究的一部分。作者分析了编制社会核算矩阵的方法论基础、其与国民账户体系(SNA)的联系及其在宏观经济分析中的应用。论文特别关注了在评估外生影响(包括乘数效应)方面的应用,这些外生影响产生于国民经济的各个领域,用于管理决策和经济政策项目的实施。论文回顾了根据国民账户体系方法并在 G. Pyatt 和 A. Roe 修正模型的基础上编制的 2020 年俄罗斯联邦社会核算汇总表。作者提出了账目部分转换方案,以加强反映机构部门之间的直接收入流。对 SAM 的应用领域及其作为宏观经济研究工具的发展进行了分析,强调了在社会核算矩阵中详细表示家庭收入和支出结构的发展方法的重要性。这将有助于解决贫困、不平等和相关的社会问题。人们注意到,随着对宏观经济核算的社会方面的更多关注,社会核算矩阵可以成为宏观经济统计中衡量福利和家庭收入形成和分配过程的主要工具。
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Social Accounting Matrices: Challenges and Prospects of Use in Macroeconomic Statistics
The paper presents results of the first stage of research on the construction of social accounting matrices (SAMs) for the Russian Federation as part of the HSE University study on statistical assessment of households’ economic behaviour. The author analyses the methodological foun- dations of SAM compilation, their connection with the System of National Accounts (SNA) and their use in macroeconomic analysis. Special attention is paid to the application of SAM in evaluating exogenous impacts, including multiplier effects, arising in all spheres of the national economy at governing decision-making and implementation of economic policy projects.The paper reviews aggregated social accounting matrices for the Russian Federation for the year 2020 that were compiled according to the SNA methodology and based on the G. Pyatt and A. Roe modified model. The author proposes the scheme of accounts partial trans- formation enhancing the reflection of direct income flows between institutional sectors. The properties of SAM as a static economic impact evaluation model are reviewed, and for illustration purposes, results of experimental computation of the effect of changed demand from the Rest of the World are considered.Analysis of areas of SAM application and its development as a tool for macroeconomic research highlights the importance of development methods of a detailed representation of the structure of household incomes and expenditures in social accounting matrices. It will foster solutions to poverty, inequality and connected social problems. It is noted that, with increased attention to the social aspects of macroeconomic accounting, SAM can become a major tool for measuring well-being and household income formation and distribution processes in macroeconomic statistics.
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