BR-EMS 2021 年巴西投保人口寿命表

Mario De Oliveira, Ana Carolina Soares Bertho, Bruno Costa, Flávia Sommerlatte Silva, Mariane Branco Alves, Milton Ramos Ramirez, Rafael Brandão de Rezende Borges, R. Marques, Ricardo Martins da Silva Rosa, Rodrigo Lima Peregrino, Viviana das Graças Ribeiro Lobo, Thais C. O. Fonseca
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文介绍了巴西私人保险市场的精算生命表 BR- EMS 2021。通过对 Heligman- Pollard 死亡率定律参数的贝叶斯推断和 15 年来 23 个保险集团的数据(共计 35 亿个登记册),采用双隐层神经网络对数据进行了校正。结果表明,投保人口的死亡率低于巴西总人口,甚至低于美国等发达国家的全国人口。此外,除了预期的死亡率性别差距外,死亡和生存保险覆盖群体之间也存在明显的差距。同样,投保人群的特征也缓解了巴西人口中众所周知的地区结构差异,这表明,与居住地等其他突出因素相比,成为选定投保人群的一部分与更有效的死亡保护相关。
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BR-EMS 2021 life table for the Brazilian insured population
This article presents the Brazilian private insurance market’s actuarial life tables, BR- EMS 2021. Using Bayesian inference on the parameters of the Heligman- Pollard law of mortality and data from 23 insurance groups over 15 years, totaling 3.5 billion registers, the data were corrected through a two hidden-layer neural network. The resulting tables show that the insured population exhibits lower mortality rates than the general Brazilian population, even lower than the national populations of well-developed countries such as the USA. Moreover, besides the expected gender gap in mortality rates, there is a clear distance between the death and survivorship insurance coverage groups. Likewise, the insured population characteristics mitigate well-known regional structural discrepancies in the Brazilian population, indicating that being part of the selected population of insured individuals is thus associated with a more effective protection against death than other outstanding factors such as geographic region of residence.
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