Antarctic polar vortex dynamics in 2019 and 2020 under the influence of the subtropical stratosphere

The trend of strengthening of the Antarctic polar vortex in late spring and early summer (November–December) has been observed in recent decades. A good example of this trend is the dynamics of the Antarctic polar vortex in 2020 when it existed until the last week of December. In 2019, conversely, on the contrary, an unusually early breakup of the polar vortex occurred, a minor sudden stratospheric warming was recorded. Strengthening (or weakening) of the Antarctic polar vortex occurs as a result of an increase (or decrease) in the stratospheric meridional temperature gradient under conditions of growth (or decline) in the temperature of the lower subtropical stratosphere. We considered the temperature variations in the lower subtropical stratosphere in the spring of 2019 and 2020 and the corresponding response of the Antarctic polar vortex. The dynamics of the Antarctic polar vortex in September–October 2019 and November 2020 was largely synchronized with the temperature changes in the lower subtropical stratosphere relative to climatological means. Using correlation analysis, we show that the Antarctic polar vortex dynamics in December is largely due to the temperature changes in the lower subtropical stratosphere that occurred in the second half of November, which manifested itself in 2020.