Risk factors for pancreatic necrosis in acute pancreatitis in obese patients

Background. Acute pancreatitis is an aseptic inflammation of the pancreas with diverse complications and further development of necrosis of the gland, parapancreatic tissue and possible addition of secondary infection. A significant number of biochemical markers that can be predictors of pancreatitis complications are still being researched. However, most of them are expensive and their indicators are increased only in the first 24–48 hours after the onset of the disease, so they are not used in daily clinical routine. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the factors that indicate an elevated risk of necrosis in acute severe pancreatitis. Materials and methods. A retrospective analysis of 80 patients with acute pancreatitis was performed via creation of a multivariate logistic regression model. Results. The dependence of the risk of pancreatic necrosis on the following factor signs was found: lipase at the onset of the disease (cut-off value = 599.6 U/l, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (АUС) = 0.72 (95% confidence interval (СІ) 0.57–0.88)), severity of the disease, fibrinogen on day 3 of the disease (cut-off value = 9.7, АUС = 0.65 (95% СІ 0.48–0.81)), C-reactive protein (cut-off value = 175.7 mg/L, AUC = 0.70 (95% CI 0.54–0.86)), and intra-abdominal mean capillary perfusion pressure on the first day of the disease (cut-off value ≤ 63.3 mm Hg, АUС = 0.88 (95% СІ 0.77–0.99)). The autopsy results revealed the presence of necrosis and microthrombosis of the pancreas. Conclusions. Factors that may indicate an increased risk of pancreatic necrosis were high levels of lipase, fibrinogen on the third day of the disease, C-reactive protein, decreased intra-abdominal mean capillary perfusion pressure, severity of the disease, and the presence of portosplenomesentric thrombosis.