Entrepreneurship Lock and the Demand for Health Insurance: Evidence from the US Affordable Care Act

Most US workers have health insurance plans sponsored and subsidized by their employers. The US Affordable Care Act (ACA) improved and expanded the availability of non-employer-based health insurance, with protections for pre-existing conditions, guaranteed issue, and community rating in non-group markets. Using National Health Interview Survey data for 2009 to 2018 and a difference-in-differences modeling approach, this study finds that the ACA increased self-employment in 2015 and 2016 among US adults with higher demand for health insurance. The probability of self-employment increased by 1.4 to 1.8 percentage points among adults ages 30 to 64 with at least one pre-ACA declinable condition and no alternative source of health insurance through a spouse’s employer or public programs. However, these effects were short-lived. As uncertainty about the long-term viability of the ACA’s health insurance exchanges increased in 2017 and 2018, the probability of self-employment among individuals with high demand for insurance fell to pre-ACA levels.