基于分形的气候动力学趋势分析方法

M. Meenakshi, A. Gowrisankar
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摘要

术语 "气候变化 "是指世界气候和天气模式在较长时期内发生的变化。本文通过提供二氧化碳排放与气温和降水异常等自然参数之间的关系来研究气候变化模式。通过赫斯特指数,利用分形维度分析了气温异常和降水异常的不规则性。参数的分形维数范围估计在 1.01 至 1.60 之间。根据所获得的分形维度值对参数进行分类,并利用自回归综合移动平均模型对 2023 年至 2032 年的参数进行短期预测。
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Fractal-based approach on analyzing the trends of climate dynamics
The terminology “climate change” refers to changes that occur over longer periods of time in the climate and weather patterns of the world. This paper investigates the climate changing patterns by providing a relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and natural parameters such as temperature and precipitation anomaly. The irregularity of the temperature anomaly and precipitation anomaly is analyzed using the fractal dimension via the Hurst exponent. The range of fractal dimensions for the parameters is estimated between 1.01 and 1.60. From the obtained values of fractal dimension, the parameters are classified and their short-term forecast is presented from 2023 to 2032 using the autoregressive integrated moving average model.
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