纳米比亚的经济基本面和房价:来自真实数据和插值数据的比较证据

B. Kwakye, Tze-Haw Chan
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文的主要目的是同时使用数据类型来加强发展中国家,特别是纳米比亚住房市场的计量经济学分析。设计/方法/途径关于撒哈拉以南非洲住房市场计量经济学分析的学术讨论表明,时间序列数据的不足阻碍了该地区此类性质的研究。因此,本文旨在使用 1990 年至 2021 年的实际数据和插值数据,并在 ARDL 模型的支持下,比较分析经济基本面对纳米比亚房价的影响。研究还发现,真实数据和插值数据频率之间的差异不大。实践意义 建议应根据结果的统计意义来决定是否采用插值数据频率类型。此外,有必要监测住房市场和基本面之间的联系,以确保住房市场的稳定和可持续发展,从而加强政策导向和审慎的房地产投资决策。
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Economic fundamentals and house prices in Namibia: comparative evidence from real and interpolated data
Purpose The primary aim of this paper is to concurrently use the data types to enhance econometric analysis in the housing market in developing countries, particularly Namibia. Design/methodology/approach Scholarly discussions on econometric analysis in the housing market in sub-Saharan Africa suggest that the inadequacy of time series data has impeded studies of such nature in the region. Hence, this paper aims to comparatively analyse the impact of economic fundamentals on house prices in Namibia using real and interpolated data from 1990 to 2021 supported by the ARDL model. Findings It was discovered that in all the three types of data house prices were affected by fundamentals except real GDP in the long term. It was also noted that there were not much significant variations between the real data and the interpolated data frequencies. However, the results of the annual data and the semi-annual interpolated data were more analogously comparable to the quarterly interpolated data Practical implications It is suggested that the adoption of interpolated data frequency type should be based on the statistical significance of the result. In addition, the need to monitor the nexus of the housing market and fundamentals is necessary for stable and sustainable housing market for enhanced policy direction and prudent property investment decision. Originality/value The study pioneer to concurrently use the data types to enhance econometric analysis in the housing market in developing countries.
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