探讨去全球化背景下中国内循环战略对股市的影响

IF 5.3 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Asian Economic Papers Pub Date : 2024-01-08 DOI:10.1162/asep_a_00880
Yujie Shi, Xinyi Hong, Liming Wang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

2020 年 5 月,中国制定了《内循环战略》(ICS),以应对去全球化带来的全球经济衰退风险。本研究首次以投资者行为为重点,实证检验了中国内循环战略对股市表现的影响。利用百度搜索指数和沪深证券交易所 2020 年 7 月 27 日至 2023 年 5 月 5 日期间的数据,研究结果表明,股票收益与投资者对中国 ICS 的关注度呈负相关,而股票波动率则呈正相关。这表明,经济战略的持续而深刻的转变已经引起了投资者的担忧。此外,我们的异质性分析发现,只有在政策不确定性或地缘政治风险较高的时期,股市回报率的负相关才具有统计意义。与股市波动性的正相关关系只有在地缘政治风险较高时才具有统计意义。这表明,内部和外部环境的稳定在减轻投资者的担忧方面发挥着至关重要的作用。我们还观察到对股市不同板块的影响不一,一些板块未受影响,而另一些板块则主要经历了回报率下降。
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Exploring the Impact of China's Internal Circulation Strategy on its Stock Market under Deglobalization
In May 2020, China formulated the Internal Circulation Strategy (ICS) to address the risks of global economic downturns caused by deglobalization. This study is the first to empirically examine the impacts of China's ICS on its stock market performance, focusing on investor behavior. Using data from the Baidu search index and the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges for the period 27 July 2020 to 5 May 2023, the results reveal that stock returns are negatively associated with investor attention to China's ICS, while stock volatilities are positively associated. This suggests that the ongoing and profound shift in economic strategy has raised concerns among investors. Furthermore, our analysis of heterogeneity finds that the negative association with stock market returns is statistically significant only during times of high policy uncertainty or geopolitical risk. The positive association with stock market volatility is statistically significant only during times of high geopolitical risk. This indicates that the stability of the internal and external environment plays a crucial role in alleviating investor concerns. We also observe mixed impacts on different sectors of the stock markets, with some sectors unaffected while others primarily experiencing a decline in returns.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
7.50
自引率
0.00%
发文量
16
期刊介绍: The journal Asian Economic Papers (AEP) is supported by several prominent institutions, including the Center for Sustainable Development at Columbia University in the United States. This shows that there is a strong emphasis on sustainable development within the journal's scope. Additionally, the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy in South Korea, the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN) in Malaysia, and the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia in Indonesia also sponsor AEP. The articles published in AEP focus on conducting thorough and rigorous analyses of significant economic issues pertaining to specific Asian economies or the broader Asian region. The aim is to gain a deeper understanding of these issues and provide innovative solutions. By offering creative solutions to economic challenges, AEP contributes to the discourse and policymaking that impact the Asian economies and region as a whole.
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