The Natural History of SARS-CoV-2-Incurred Disease: From Infection to Long COVID

The coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 is the causative pathogen of the COVID-19 pandemic that has been causing global upheaval since 2019. The widespread administration of vaccines has partially deterred the spread of SARS-CoV-2, yet the virus is mutating its genome to reduce its antigenicity and evade the human herd immunity. It seems that SARS-CoV-2 will co-exist with the human population for many decades to come. While most infected individuals only experience mild to moderate symptoms, some develop severe pulmonary and systemic disease that can result in hospitalization or even death. The natural history model of SARS-CoV-2 infection has been proposed which includes three sequential stages: the early infection stage, pulmonary stage, and hyper-inflammatory stage. Recently, it has been observed that many people who recovered from an acute infection still experience persistent symptoms for weeks or months, a condition known as long COVID. Furthermore, some COVID-19 patients display escalated rates of both macro- and micro-thrombosis due to endotheliopathy. Hence, we added the thrombosis and convalescent stages to the natural history model, encompassing the entire period from early infection to long COVID. The early infection stage is characterized by symptomatic or asymptomatic elevation of viral titers. Some patients progress to the pulmonary stage characterized by opacities in chest X-rays and computed tomography. The thrombosis stage is characterized by heightened rates of pulmonary thrombosis and consistently elevated D-dimer levels. The hyper-inflammatory stage is characterized by storms of cytokines, such as IL-6, IL-17, and interferons, which is a systemic effect. In the convalescent stage, some people recover completely, while others suffer from long COVID with persistent symptoms such as fatigue, shortness of breath, or brain fog. The natural history model of SARS-CoV-2 infection can be used to elucidate treatment and care.