Characterization and future projection of marine heatwaves under climate change in the South China Sea

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are widely recognized as prolonged periods of significantly elevated sea surface temperatures, leading to substantial adverse impacts on marine ecosystems. However, a comprehensive understanding of their characteristics and potential changes under climate change in the South China Sea (SCS, 0 ∼ 25°N, 105 ∼ 125°E) remains insufficient. Here, utilizing the OISST V2.0 reanalysis dataset, our study first examines MHW characteristics and their trends in the SCS during the historical period (1982 ∼ 2014). Then, in accordance with the criteria established in this study, GFDL-ESM4, EC-Earth3-Veg, NESM3, EC-Earth3, and GFDL-CM4 are identified from the CMIP6 ensemble of 19 models for their enhanced simulations of historical MHW characteristics. Moreover, considering that the fixed and sliding threshold methods offer distinct perspectives on the future evolution of MHWs, we employ both approaches to evaluate MHW characteristics under projected scenarios for the future period (2015 ∼ 2100) and subsequently compare the disparities between the two methodologies. The outcomes obtained using these methods consistently indicate that MHWs in the SCS are anticipated to intensify and persist for longer durations in the future. Besides, addressing seasonal variability, the peak intensity of MHWs falls in May during both the historical period and the four projected future scenarios. This study provides valuable insights into the behavior of MHWs in the SCS within the context of climate change, underscoring the urgency of adopting effective mitigation strategies. Especially, the use of two definition methods provides a more comprehensive set of information for understanding the future changes of MHWs in the SCS.