2050 年的铁路将会怎样?关于铁路系统的技术、挑战和机遇的专家调查

IF 4.6 Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE IEEE Open Journal of Intelligent Transportation Systems Pub Date : 2023-12-25 DOI:10.1109/OJITS.2023.3346534
Michael Nold;Francesco Corman
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引用次数: 0

摘要

铁路系统可以实现社会当前和未来的运输目标;与其他运输方式相比,铁路系统具有较高的能源、空间和资源效率。它可以提供高质量的运输服务,在速度、安全性和舒适性方面优于大多数竞争模式。然而,它在总交通量中所占的份额往往相对较小。本研究探讨了新技术及其对铁路系统带来的挑战和机遇,以了解铁路系统可能的未来,使其能够提前做好准备,利用其竞争优势和可能的技术发展。在本文中,我们就铁路系统的整体技术视角对 30 位专家进行了多阶段访谈。受访专家从瑞士和欧洲的铁路运营商、行业和研究角度进行了报告。访谈结果分为供应、运营和技术三个方面,并根据其改进潜力、变革对系统的影响、可能实施的时间范围以及对模式转变的影响进行了评估。结果表明,许多方面都有助于技术的进一步发展,但无法确定单一的游戏规则改变者。人们期待自动化的发展,但认为不可能出现革命性的变化。
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How Will the Railway Look Like in 2050? A Survey of Experts on Technologies, Challenges and Opportunities for the Railway System
The railway system can fulfil society’s current and future transportation goals; compared to other transport modes, it does that with high energy, space and resource efficiency. It can deliver high-quality transport services, superior speed, safety and comfort to most competing modes. Nevertheless, its share of the total traffic is often relatively small. This study examines new technologies, their challenges and opportunities for the railway system to understand possible futures of the railway systems, allowing it to prepare ahead of time to prepare and exploit its competitive strengths and possible technological developments. In this paper, we report on multi-stage interviews of 30 experts concerning a holistic technological view of the railway system. The surveyed experts reported on perspectives from the railway operator, industry and research from Switzerland and Europe. The outcomes were categorized into supply, operation and technology aspects and evaluated by their potential for improvement, system impact of the changes, time horizon of possible implementation, and effects on modal shift. The results show that many aspects contribute to the further development of the technologies, but no single game changer could be identified. Developments are expected in automation; revolutionary changes are perceived as unlikely.
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