估算系数估算和准确性预测双边方法中可接受的最小样本量

Bowen Cai, Xuesong Wang
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摘要

本研究涉及驾驶模拟器实验设计研究中可接受的最小样本量的确定。应明确规定可接受的最小样本量,这样研究人员才能对所研究的人群做出准确的推断。然而,通常收集的样本数量在很大程度上取决于数据收集的费用。研究人员在实验中确定可接受的最小样本量的较好方法是根据最初的少量样本估算出所需受试者的数量。预测估计精度和预测准确度是开展实验的主要因素。因此,本研究估算了可接受的最小样本量,重点关注选定重要变量的系数估算和预测精度。最小可接受样本量的选择是系数估算计算和准确性预测计算方法返回的最大值。这种方法具有灵活性和可扩展性,可适用于其他实验情况。为了验证这一程序的适当性,我们招募了 50 名司机作为样本。根据重要变量的均方误差(MSE)曲线的变量系数收敛趋势,反向确定了可接受的最小样本量。MSE 曲线明显的收敛趋势和建议的方法都表明,30 是一个可接受的样本量。
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Estimation of the Smallest Acceptable Sample Size in Bilateral Approaches to Coefficient Estimation and Accuracy Prediction
This study is about smallest acceptable sample size determination in experimental design studies involving a driving simulator. The smallest acceptable sample size should be specified so researchers can make accurate inferences about their studied populations. However, the number of samples typically collected is largely subject to the expense of data collection. Working out the methodology of estimating the required number of subjects based on an initially small number is a better way for researchers to determine the smallest acceptable sample size in the experiment. Predictor estimate precision and prediction accuracy are major factors for conducting experiments. Accordingly, this study estimates the smallest acceptable sample size, with emphasis on coefficient estimation and prediction accuracy for selected significant variables. The smallest acceptable sample size is chosen to be the maximum value returned by both coefficient estimation calculation and accuracy prediction calculation approaches. This methodology is flexible and scalable, and can be tailored to other experimental situations. To validate the appropriateness of this procedure, a more than sufficient sample of 50 drivers was recruited. The smallest acceptable sample size was determined backwardly, based on the variable coefficient convergence trends of the mean squared error (MSE) curves of the significant variables. Both the clear converging trends of the MSE curves and the proposed method indicated that 30 was an acceptable sample size.
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