A probabilistic generative model for tracking multi-knowledge concept mastery probability

Knowledge tracing aims to track students’ knowledge status over time to predict students’ future performance accurately. In a real environment, teachers expect knowledge tracing models to provide the interpretable result of knowledge status. Markov chain-based knowledge tracing (MCKT) models, such as Bayesian Knowledge Tracing, can track knowledge concept mastery probability over time. However, as the number of tracked knowledge concepts increases, the time complexity of MCKT predicting student performance increases exponentially (also called explaining away problem). When the number of tracked knowledge concepts is large, we cannot utilize MCKT to track knowledge concept mastery probability over time. In addition, the existing MCKT models only consider the relationship between students’ knowledge status and problems when modeling students’ responses but ignore the relationship between knowledge concepts in the same problem. To address these challenges, we propose an inTerpretable pRobAbilistiC gEnerative moDel (TRACED), which can track students’ numerous knowledge concepts mastery probabilities over time. To solve explain away problem, we design long and short-term memory (LSTM)-based networks to approximate the posterior distribution, predict students’ future performance, and propose a heuristic algorithm to train LSTMs and probabilistic graphical model jointly. To better model students’ exercise responses, we proposed a logarithmic linear model with three interactive strategies, which models students’ exercise responses by considering the relationship among students’ knowledge status, knowledge concept, and problems. We conduct experiments with four real-world datasets in three knowledge-driven tasks. The experimental results show that TRACED outperforms existing knowledge tracing methods in predicting students’ future performance and can learn the relationship among students, knowledge concepts, and problems from students’ exercise sequences. We also conduct several case studies. The case studies show that TRACED exhibits excellent interpretability and thus has the potential for personalized automatic feedback in the real-world educational environment.