{"title":"人口中舆论两极分化的动态变化","authors":"Ricardo Cano Macias , Jorge Mauricio Ruiz Vera","doi":"10.1016/j.mathsocsci.2024.01.009","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This article addresses the polarization of the population around an idea and proposes a simple model that describes its dynamics in a society characterized by asymmetries in freedom of expression. The model considers a population divided into followers of an idea, consisting of moderate sympathizers and staunch defenders, and a group of opponents who try to spread their position but are also susceptible to opinion change. An analysis of stability of the proposed system of differential equations is conducted to examine policies that prevent homogenization around the idea. The results reveal conditionally stable equilibrium points that represent the coexistence of opinions and the extinction of polarization. Two threshold values are proposed to determine the persistence of polarization over time. Furthermore, the results of the model are validated through the analysis of two real cases of polarization in Colombian society, demonstrating its ability to reproduce the general behavior of opinion divergence and its utility in polarization control.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51118,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Social Sciences","volume":"128 ","pages":"Pages 31-40"},"PeriodicalIF":0.5000,"publicationDate":"2024-01-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165489624000180/pdfft?md5=b0c31f70280598cc4da3168bdced3416&pid=1-s2.0-S0165489624000180-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Dynamics of opinion polarization in a population\",\"authors\":\"Ricardo Cano Macias , Jorge Mauricio Ruiz Vera\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.mathsocsci.2024.01.009\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>This article addresses the polarization of the population around an idea and proposes a simple model that describes its dynamics in a society characterized by asymmetries in freedom of expression. The model considers a population divided into followers of an idea, consisting of moderate sympathizers and staunch defenders, and a group of opponents who try to spread their position but are also susceptible to opinion change. An analysis of stability of the proposed system of differential equations is conducted to examine policies that prevent homogenization around the idea. The results reveal conditionally stable equilibrium points that represent the coexistence of opinions and the extinction of polarization. Two threshold values are proposed to determine the persistence of polarization over time. Furthermore, the results of the model are validated through the analysis of two real cases of polarization in Colombian society, demonstrating its ability to reproduce the general behavior of opinion divergence and its utility in polarization control.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":51118,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Mathematical Social Sciences\",\"volume\":\"128 \",\"pages\":\"Pages 31-40\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.5000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-01-24\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165489624000180/pdfft?md5=b0c31f70280598cc4da3168bdced3416&pid=1-s2.0-S0165489624000180-main.pdf\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Mathematical Social Sciences\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165489624000180\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q4\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Mathematical Social Sciences","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165489624000180","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
This article addresses the polarization of the population around an idea and proposes a simple model that describes its dynamics in a society characterized by asymmetries in freedom of expression. The model considers a population divided into followers of an idea, consisting of moderate sympathizers and staunch defenders, and a group of opponents who try to spread their position but are also susceptible to opinion change. An analysis of stability of the proposed system of differential equations is conducted to examine policies that prevent homogenization around the idea. The results reveal conditionally stable equilibrium points that represent the coexistence of opinions and the extinction of polarization. Two threshold values are proposed to determine the persistence of polarization over time. Furthermore, the results of the model are validated through the analysis of two real cases of polarization in Colombian society, demonstrating its ability to reproduce the general behavior of opinion divergence and its utility in polarization control.
期刊介绍:
The international, interdisciplinary journal Mathematical Social Sciences publishes original research articles, survey papers, short notes and book reviews. The journal emphasizes the unity of mathematical modelling in economics, psychology, political sciences, sociology and other social sciences.
Topics of particular interest include the fundamental aspects of choice, information, and preferences (decision science) and of interaction (game theory and economic theory), the measurement of utility, welfare and inequality, the formal theories of justice and implementation, voting rules, cooperative games, fair division, cost allocation, bargaining, matching, social networks, and evolutionary and other dynamics models.
Papers published by the journal are mathematically rigorous but no bounds, from above or from below, limits their technical level. All mathematical techniques may be used. The articles should be self-contained and readable by social scientists trained in mathematics.