A Review of the Carboniferous Shale Gas Potential of Northern England: A data-based analysis of why it won't work

The recent shale gas revolution originated in the United States in the late 1990s with the exploration of the Carboniferous Barnett Shale in Texas. Success in a number of additional basins in North America such as the Marcellus, Eagleford and Bakken stimulated a search for similar opportunities elsewhere around the world. Amongst the shales and basins targeted by industry was the Carboniferous Bowland Shale (and equivalents) in northern England. An initial premise that the Barnett represented an excellent analogue for the Bowland lead to overoptimistic reserve estimates which have been shown to be largely incorrect. On the basis of visual inspection of wellbore cores, the Carboniferous Barnett and Bowland shales appear to be very similar. Unfortunately, it is there that the similarity ends. Research carried out for the UKUH project has highlighted important differences adversely impacting propectivity. These can be summarised as basin type/continuity and structural complexity. The total organic carbon (TOC), maturity, mineralogy and thickness of the Bowland Shale and equivalents are broadly similar to the successful US examples. Our conclusion is that the Bowland Shale in the UK does not represent a technically significant resource and in hindsight did not merit the considerable industry and media attention that has been associated with it. A key learning is that fundamental research based on heritage data and modern analytical and modelling techniques should have preceded drilling and fracking operations in northern England. Supplementary material at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.7027899