基于均值聚类算法的洪水时空变化特征分析模型

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摘要

为分析区域洪涝灾害时空变化特征,分析广西降水分布的主要变化特征和水文响应,提高水资源综合利用效率,本文引入k-means聚类算法,设计了洪涝灾害时空变化特征分析模型。首先,获取广西的洪水数据和5 km范围内的国家气象站观测数据,完成山洪灾害基础数据的收集。根据收集到的数据,对广西地区山洪灾害的时空分布进行分析。其次,利用 Kriging 空间插值法分析了广西降水数据的空间分布。然后,采用 Mann-Kendall 趋势检验法检验降水相关统计参数随时间变化的趋势。此外,应用小波理论分析了广西年降水量和不同持续时间降水量的时间序列。随后,引入 k-means 聚类算法,构建洪水变化时空特征分析模型,确定该地区不同年份降水的集中程度和持续时间。最后,分析不同指标下不同季节洪水事件的时空变化特征,实现洪水时空变化特征分析。研究结果表明,Frank Copula 函数拟合的年降水量与气温的相关性最好,能够较好地表征两者之间的相关性。Frank Copula 函数对桂林秋季、南宁夏季、北海夏冬季降水与气温的相关性拟合效果最好。广西壮族自治区的年降水量呈逐渐减少的趋势,尤其是 R 站和 P 站。总之,Frank Copula 函数可以有效地描述广西不同季节和地区降水与气温的相关性和趋势。
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Analysis model of flood spatiotemporal change characteristics based on k-means clustering algorithm
In order to analyze the spatiotemporal change characteristics of regional flood disaster, analyze the main change characteristics and hydrological response of precipitation distribution in Guangxi, and improve the comprehensive utilization efficiency of water resources, this paper introduces the k-means clustering algorithm to design an analysis model of spatiotemporal change characteristics of flood disaster. First of all, obtain the flood data in Guangxi and the observation data of the national meteorological station within 5 km, complete the collection of the basic data of mountain flood disasters. Based on the collected data, an analysis was conducted on the spatial and temporal distribution of flash floods in the Guangxi region. Secondly, the Kriging spatial interpolation method was used to analyze the spatial distribution of precipitation data in Guangxi. The Mann-Kendall trend test was then employed to examine the trend of precipitation-related statistical parameters over time. Additionally, wavelet theory was applied to analyze the time series of annual precipitation and precipitation with different durations in Guangxi. Subsequently, the k-means clustering algorithm was introduced to construct a model for analyzing the spatiotemporal characteristics of flood changes, determining the concentration and duration of precipitation in different years in the region. Finally, analyze the spatiotemporal change characteristics of flood events in different seasons under various indicators, and realize the analysis of flood spatiotemporal change characteristics. The research results indicate that the Frank Copula function fits the best correlation between annual precipitation and temperature, and can better characterize the correlation between the two. The Frank Copula function has the best fitting effect on the correlation between precipitation and temperature in autumn in Guilin, summer in Nanning, and summer and winter in Beihai. In Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, the annual precipitation shows a gradually decreasing trend, especially at R and P stations. In summary, the Frank Copula function can effectively characterize the correlation and trend of precipitation and temperature in different seasons and regions of Guangxi.
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