印度拉贾斯坦邦乌代布尔地区三十年降雨量变化的统计分析

Porush Kumar, Kuldeep Kamboj, Shalu Vyas, A. Mathur
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摘要

本研究对乌代布尔地区三十年(1991-2020 年)的降雨量变化进行了统计分析。利用从印度拉贾斯坦邦乌代布尔地区不同地方的 9 个雨量站收集到的降雨量数据,进行了线性回归(参数)和 Mann-Kendall(非参数)趋势检验,同时还对降水指数进行了检验。研究发现,乌代布尔地区 3 月至 11 月的降雨量呈上升趋势,表明研究期间这几个月的年总降雨量有所增加。大约 85.20% 的年降雨量来自雨季期间的西南季风。PCI 值(21.74 至 57.92)和 CV 值(11.04 至 21.23)分别显示了降雨的高度不均匀性和较小的变异性。在研究期间,每年的 SRA 值都大于-0.84(无干旱类别)。在研究期间的 30 年中,仅有 1995、1999、2000 和 2002 这 4 年出现降雨不足,属于严重不足。湿润指数值表明,在研究期间,2006 年降雨量最大(Wi = 179.07),是最湿润的一年,而 2000 年降雨量最小(Wi = 54.26),是最干旱的一年。在过去的三十年里,年总降雨量有所增加,这表明政府有必要实施所有必要的计划,妥善利用和管理雨水,以防止未来发生洪水等自然灾害。
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Statistical Analysis of Thirty-Year Rainfall Variability in Udaipur District, Rajasthan, India
The rainfall variability for the Udaipur district for thirty years (1991–2020) was statistically analysed in this study. The linear regression (parametric) and Mann–Kendall (non-parametric) trend test along with precipitation indices performed using rainfall data collected from 9 rain gauge stations situated in different parts of the Udaipur district, Rajasthan, India. An increasing trend was found between the months March to November in the Udaipur district, indicating that total annual rainfall has increased in these months during the study period. About 85.20% of the total annual rainfall is occurred due to the southwest monsoon during the rainy season. The PCI (21.74 to 57.92) and CV (11.04 to 21.23) values show the high-nonuniformity and less rainfall variability, respectively. The SRA values for each year have been greater than -0.84 (no drought category) during the study period. The rainfall deficiency took place only four out of 30 years of the study period, 1995, 1999, 2000, and 2002, which fall under the category of large deficiency. The values of the wetness index indicate that during the study period,2006 was the wettest year due to the maximum rainfall (Wi = 179.07) while 2000 was the driest year due to the minimum rainfall (Wi = 54.26). Total annual rainfall has increased in the last three decades, which shows the need for implementation of all necessary plans by the government for proper rainwater utilization and management to prevent future natural disasters like floods.
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