极端气候与可持续性问题:喜马偕尔邦拉豪尔河谷拟议水电项目案例

Vishwa B. S. Chandel, Beant Singh Rana
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摘要

水和能源是发展的关键;然而,在气候变化和灾害风险的背景下,水电和可持续发展辩论的核心存在着大量争议。喜马拉雅山的可再生能源潜力巨大,因此自 20 世纪 90 年代以来就开始规划水电项目。然而,与这种开发相关的社会、经济和环境问题也导致当地社区对气候变化产生恐惧。本研究分析了喜马偕尔邦拉豪尔山谷极端气候、灾害风险和水电开发之间的关系。研究考察了降水和气温趋势方面的长期气候数据,而日降水网格数据则用于分析极端气候。研究结果表明,降水强度在统计意义上显著增加,冬季和冬后气温上升。此外,暴雨和特大暴雨日数、日降雨强度也呈上升趋势,可能会对当地经济、生活和水电开发造成严重影响。实地观察表明,当地居民对拟议的开发项目表示不满。重要的是,必须对这一辩论进行合乎逻辑的审查,以确保该地区未来的安全,并对灾害和气候变化风险有正确的认识。
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Climate Extremes and Sustainability Issues: A Case of Proposed Hydropower Projects in Lahaul Valley, Himachal Pradesh
Water and energy are the key to development; however, a great deal of contestation is at the very core of hydropower and sustainability debate in the context climate change and risk of disasters. A vast potential for renewable energy in the Himalayas has led to planning for hydropower projects since 1990s. However, social, economic and environmental issues linked to such development has also led to a fear among local communities in light of climate change. This study analysed the relation between climate extremes, disaster risk and hydropower development in Lahaul Valley of Himachal Pradesh. The study examined long-term climate data for precipitation and temperature trends while daily rainfall gridded data was used for the analysis of climate extremes. The results show statistically significant increase in precipitation intensity and rise of winter and post winter temperature. Also, heavy and very heavy rainfall days, daily rainfall intensity shows increasing trends that may have serious repercussions on local economy, livelihood and hydropower development. The field observations reveal discontentment of local population to proposed development. It is important that this debate must be reviewed logically to ensure safe future of the area with sound understanding of disasters and climate change risk.
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