Covid-19 对有效市场假说 (EMH) 异常的影响调查:计量经济学方法

Purwanto Widodo
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摘要

本研究旨在分析 Covid-19 危机对 LQ45 指数每日回报模式变化的影响,并探讨 LQ45 指数的每日回报模式是否如 EMH(有效市场假说)所论证的那样有效。观察期为 Covid 19 之前和期间。数据分析采用计量经济学方法来检验 EMH 是否存在异常,同时由于使用了虚拟变量,还运行了 ARCH-GARCH 模型。分析结果表明,Covid-19 对 LQ45 的日回报模式没有影响,周四效应得到证实,但没有发现周日效应、周一效应和周末效应。另一个发现是交易日异常检验模型对误差项分布很敏感,这也表明波动率的好消息或坏消息不仅取决于非对称模型,还取决于误差项分布的选择。
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An Investigation of the Effect of Covid-19 on Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) Anomalies: Econometric Approach
The research aims to analyze the influence of the Covid-19 crisis on changes in the daily return pattern of the LQ45 Index, and to see whether the daily return pattern of the LQ45 Index is efficient as argued by the EMH (Efficient Market Hypothesis). The observation period was before and during Covid 19. Data analysis used an econometric approach to test any EMH anomalies, as well as running the ARCH-GARCH model due to the use of dummy variables. The analysis results show that Covid-19 has no effect on the daily return pattern of LQ45, The Week Four effect is proven, but The Day of Week effect, Monday effect and Weekend effect are not found. Another finding that the trading day anomaly testing model is sensitive to the error term distribution, also suggests that good news or bad news in volatility not only depends on the asymmetric model but also the choice of error term distribution.
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