只需对 4% 的铁塔进行绝缘处理,就可将以色列的 Eagle 触电风险降低 80%。

Asaf Mayrose, Eli Haviv, Ohad Hatzofe, David Troupin, Michal Elroy, Nir Sapir
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摘要

博内利鹰(Aquila fasciata)是以色列的一种极度濒危物种,电线触电对其种群构成严重威胁。由于改造电塔以防止老鹰死亡是一个缓慢而昂贵的过程,因此必须对电网中的电塔进行优先排序,以快速有效地降低老鹰死亡率。为了确定哪些铁塔需要进行改造,我们采用了三阶段最大熵建模流程来识别不同环境变量所造成的风险因素。与触电相关性最高的环境特征是与水库的距离(即许多触电事件发生在水库附近)。在以色列的干旱环境中,水库是博内利鹰的觅食热点。为水库抽水设施供电的电塔往往是许多水库附近最高的栖息地,形成了一个生态陷阱。水库对老鹰的强大吸引力可能解释了模型所显示的高选择性。模型表明,只需对电网中 3.6% 的铁塔进行改造,就能将老鹰触电的概率降低 77%。此外,根据模型对铁塔进行绝缘处理还可能减少其他鸟类的触电事故,包括东方帝王鹰(Aquila heliaca)和白尾海雕(Haliaeetus albicilla)。本文介绍的建模过程产生了两张触电风险地图,其中一张有助于确定以色列现有电力网络中减少触电风险的优先次序,另一张用于支持新基础设施的规划和设计。该模型可能有助于实现保护波涅利鹰的目标,也可能有助于确定其他干旱地区电塔改造的优先次序。
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Bonelli’s Eagle electrocution risk in Israel can be reduced by 80% by insulating only 4% of the pylons
The Bonelli’s Eagle (Aquila fasciata) is a critically endangered species in Israel, with electrocution on power lines posing a serious threat to its population. Because retrofitting of electricity pylons to prevent mortality is a slow and costly process, it is important to prioritize the pylons in the network for quick and efficient mitigation of eagle mortality. To determine which pylons need to be retrofitted, we applied a three-stage maximum entropy modeling process for identifying the risk factors posed by different environmental variables. The environmental feature with the highest correlation to electrocution is the distance to reservoirs (i.e., many electrocution events occur near water reservoirs). The reservoirs are foraging hotspots for Bonelli’s Eagles in Israel’s arid environment. Electricity pylons powering the reservoirs’ pumping facilities tend to be the highest perches in the vicinity of many of the reservoirs, creating an ecological trap. The strong attraction of reservoirs to eagles may explain the high level of selectivity indicated by the model, suggesting that retrofitting only 3.6% of the pylons in the network would achieve 77% reduction in eagles’ electrocution probability. Moreover, insulating pylons according to the model will also likely reduce electrocutions of other avian species, including Eastern Imperial Eagle (Aquila heliaca) and White-tailed Eagle (Haliaeetus albicilla). The modeling process presented here yielded two electrocution risk maps, one to facilitate prioritization of mitigation in Israel’s existing power network and the second to support planning and designing new infrastructure. The model may help reach conservation goals for Bonelli’s Eagle and may also be useful in prioritizing pylon retrofitting in other arid landscapes.
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