Thomas P Kishkovich, Kaitlyn E James, Thomas H McCoy, Roy H Perlis, Anjali J Kaimal, Mark A Clapp
{"title":"预测新生儿发病率的产妇风险分层系统的性能。","authors":"Thomas P Kishkovich, Kaitlyn E James, Thomas H McCoy, Roy H Perlis, Anjali J Kaimal, Mark A Clapp","doi":"10.1055/a-2259-0472","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objective: </strong> Maternal risk stratification systems are increasingly employed in predicting and preventing obstetric complications. These systems focus primarily on maternal morbidity, and few tools exist to stratify neonatal risk. We sought to determine if a maternal risk stratification score was associated with neonatal morbidity.</p><p><strong>Study design: </strong> Retrospective cohort study of patients with liveborn infants born at ≥24 weeks at four hospitals in one health system between January 1, 2020, and December 31, 2020. The Expanded Obstetric Comorbidity Score (EOCS) is used as the maternal risk score. The primary neonatal outcome was 5-minute Apgar <7. Logistic regression models determined associations between EOCS and neonatal morbidity. Secondary analyses were performed, including stratifying outcomes by gestational age and limiting analysis to \"low-risk\" term singletons. Model discrimination assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) and calibration via calibration plots.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong> A total of 14,497 maternal-neonatal pairs were included; 236 (1.6%) had 5-minute Apgar <7; EOCS was higher in 5-minute Apgar <7 group (median 41 vs. 11, <i>p</i> < 0.001). AUC for EOCS in predicting Apgar <7 was 0.72 (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.68, 0.75), demonstrating relatively good discrimination. Calibration plot revealed that those in the highest EOCS decile had higher risk of neonatal morbidity (7.6 vs. 1.7%, <i>p</i> < 0.001). When stratified by gestational age, discrimination weakened with advancing gestational age: AUC 0.70 for <28 weeks, 0.63 for 28 to 31 weeks, 0.64 for 32 to 36 weeks, and 0.61 for ≥37 weeks. When limited to term low-risk singletons, EOCS had lower discrimination for predicting neonatal morbidity and was not well calibrated.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong> A maternal morbidity risk stratification system does not perform well in most patients giving birth, at low risk for neonatal complications. The findings suggest that the association between EOCS and 5-minute Apgar <7 likely reflects a relationship with prematurity. This study cautions against intentional or unintentional extrapolation of maternal morbidity risk for neonatal risk, especially for term deliveries.</p><p><strong>Key points: </strong>· EOCS had moderate discrimination for Apgar <7.. · Predictive performance declined when limited to low-risk term singletons.. · Relationship between EOCS and Apgar <7 was likely driven by prematurity..</p>","PeriodicalId":7584,"journal":{"name":"American journal of perinatology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.5000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Performance of a Maternal Risk Stratification System for Predicting Low Apgar Scores.\",\"authors\":\"Thomas P Kishkovich, Kaitlyn E James, Thomas H McCoy, Roy H Perlis, Anjali J Kaimal, Mark A Clapp\",\"doi\":\"10.1055/a-2259-0472\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Objective: </strong> Maternal risk stratification systems are increasingly employed in predicting and preventing obstetric complications. These systems focus primarily on maternal morbidity, and few tools exist to stratify neonatal risk. We sought to determine if a maternal risk stratification score was associated with neonatal morbidity.</p><p><strong>Study design: </strong> Retrospective cohort study of patients with liveborn infants born at ≥24 weeks at four hospitals in one health system between January 1, 2020, and December 31, 2020. The Expanded Obstetric Comorbidity Score (EOCS) is used as the maternal risk score. The primary neonatal outcome was 5-minute Apgar <7. Logistic regression models determined associations between EOCS and neonatal morbidity. Secondary analyses were performed, including stratifying outcomes by gestational age and limiting analysis to \\\"low-risk\\\" term singletons. Model discrimination assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) and calibration via calibration plots.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong> A total of 14,497 maternal-neonatal pairs were included; 236 (1.6%) had 5-minute Apgar <7; EOCS was higher in 5-minute Apgar <7 group (median 41 vs. 11, <i>p</i> < 0.001). AUC for EOCS in predicting Apgar <7 was 0.72 (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.68, 0.75), demonstrating relatively good discrimination. Calibration plot revealed that those in the highest EOCS decile had higher risk of neonatal morbidity (7.6 vs. 1.7%, <i>p</i> < 0.001). When stratified by gestational age, discrimination weakened with advancing gestational age: AUC 0.70 for <28 weeks, 0.63 for 28 to 31 weeks, 0.64 for 32 to 36 weeks, and 0.61 for ≥37 weeks. When limited to term low-risk singletons, EOCS had lower discrimination for predicting neonatal morbidity and was not well calibrated.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong> A maternal morbidity risk stratification system does not perform well in most patients giving birth, at low risk for neonatal complications. The findings suggest that the association between EOCS and 5-minute Apgar <7 likely reflects a relationship with prematurity. This study cautions against intentional or unintentional extrapolation of maternal morbidity risk for neonatal risk, especially for term deliveries.</p><p><strong>Key points: </strong>· EOCS had moderate discrimination for Apgar <7.. · Predictive performance declined when limited to low-risk term singletons.. · Relationship between EOCS and Apgar <7 was likely driven by prematurity..</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":7584,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"American journal of perinatology\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.5000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-10-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"American journal of perinatology\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1055/a-2259-0472\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2024/2/1 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"Epub\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"OBSTETRICS & GYNECOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"American journal of perinatology","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1055/a-2259-0472","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2024/2/1 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"OBSTETRICS & GYNECOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Performance of a Maternal Risk Stratification System for Predicting Low Apgar Scores.
Objective: Maternal risk stratification systems are increasingly employed in predicting and preventing obstetric complications. These systems focus primarily on maternal morbidity, and few tools exist to stratify neonatal risk. We sought to determine if a maternal risk stratification score was associated with neonatal morbidity.
Study design: Retrospective cohort study of patients with liveborn infants born at ≥24 weeks at four hospitals in one health system between January 1, 2020, and December 31, 2020. The Expanded Obstetric Comorbidity Score (EOCS) is used as the maternal risk score. The primary neonatal outcome was 5-minute Apgar <7. Logistic regression models determined associations between EOCS and neonatal morbidity. Secondary analyses were performed, including stratifying outcomes by gestational age and limiting analysis to "low-risk" term singletons. Model discrimination assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) and calibration via calibration plots.
Results: A total of 14,497 maternal-neonatal pairs were included; 236 (1.6%) had 5-minute Apgar <7; EOCS was higher in 5-minute Apgar <7 group (median 41 vs. 11, p < 0.001). AUC for EOCS in predicting Apgar <7 was 0.72 (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.68, 0.75), demonstrating relatively good discrimination. Calibration plot revealed that those in the highest EOCS decile had higher risk of neonatal morbidity (7.6 vs. 1.7%, p < 0.001). When stratified by gestational age, discrimination weakened with advancing gestational age: AUC 0.70 for <28 weeks, 0.63 for 28 to 31 weeks, 0.64 for 32 to 36 weeks, and 0.61 for ≥37 weeks. When limited to term low-risk singletons, EOCS had lower discrimination for predicting neonatal morbidity and was not well calibrated.
Conclusion: A maternal morbidity risk stratification system does not perform well in most patients giving birth, at low risk for neonatal complications. The findings suggest that the association between EOCS and 5-minute Apgar <7 likely reflects a relationship with prematurity. This study cautions against intentional or unintentional extrapolation of maternal morbidity risk for neonatal risk, especially for term deliveries.
Key points: · EOCS had moderate discrimination for Apgar <7.. · Predictive performance declined when limited to low-risk term singletons.. · Relationship between EOCS and Apgar <7 was likely driven by prematurity..
期刊介绍:
The American Journal of Perinatology is an international, peer-reviewed, and indexed journal publishing 14 issues a year dealing with original research and topical reviews. It is the definitive forum for specialists in obstetrics, neonatology, perinatology, and maternal/fetal medicine, with emphasis on bridging the different fields.
The focus is primarily on clinical and translational research, clinical and technical advances in diagnosis, monitoring, and treatment as well as evidence-based reviews. Topics of interest include epidemiology, diagnosis, prevention, and management of maternal, fetal, and neonatal diseases. Manuscripts on new technology, NICU set-ups, and nursing topics are published to provide a broad survey of important issues in this field.
All articles undergo rigorous peer review, with web-based submission, expedited turn-around, and availability of electronic publication.
The American Journal of Perinatology is accompanied by AJP Reports - an Open Access journal for case reports in neonatology and maternal/fetal medicine.